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Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/or dependent time series is a practically relevant and challenging task. Classical time series models fail to capture complex patterns in the data, and multivariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-30 Yuyang Wang , Alex Smola , Danielle C. Maddix , Jan Gasthaus , Dean Foster , Tim Januschowski

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) possess many positive qualities when it comes to spatial raster data. Translation invariance enables CNNs to detect features regardless of their position in the scene. However, in some domains, like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-13 Arnas Uselis , Mantas Lukoševičius , Lukas Stasytis

Spatial prediction problems often use Gaussian process models, which can be computationally burdensome in high dimensions. Specification of an appropriate covariance function for the model can be challenging when complex non-stationarities…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Qi Wang , Paul A. Parker , Robert B. Lund

Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-23 Jessica Hwang , Paulo Orenstein , Judah Cohen , Karl Pfeiffer , Lester Mackey

Although by now the ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting is the most advanced approach to weather prediction, ensemble forecasts still might suffer from lack of calibration and/or display systematic bias, thus require some…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-18 Ágnes Baran , Sándor Baran

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather…

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

To quantify the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, ensemble prediction systems are utilized. Although NWP forecasts continuously improve, they suffer from systematic bias and dispersion errors. To obtain well…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-30 Ferdinand Buchner , David Jobst , Annette Möller , Claudia Czado

Seismic data processing involves techniques to deal with undesired effects that occur during acquisition and pre-processing. These effects mainly comprise coherent artefacts such as multiples, non-coherent signals such as electrical noise,…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-14 Ricard Durall , Ammar Ghanim , Mario Fernandez , Norman Ettrich , Janis Keuper

Global warming leads to the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes that cause tremendous loss of lives and property. Accurate long-range climate prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Ken C. L. Wong , Hongzhi Wang , Etienne E. Vos , Bianca Zadrozny , Campbell D. Watson , Tanveer Syeda-Mahmood

We explore the potential of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNNs) for emulating cloud superparameterization in realistic geography, using offline fits to data from the Super Parameterized Community Atmospheric Model. To identify the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-06-09 Griffin Mooers , Mike Pritchard , Tom Beucler , Jordan Ott , Galen Yacalis , Pierre Baldi , Pierre Gentine

An ensemble post-processing method is developed to improve the probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation events across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines a 3-D Vision Transformer (ViT) for bias correction…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-17 Yingkai Sha , Ryan A. Sobash , David John Gagne

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…

A new probabilistic post-processing method for wind vectors is presented in a distributional regression framework employing the bivariate Gaussian distribution. In contrast to previous studies all parameters of the distribution are…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-26 Moritz N. Lang , Georg J. Mayr , Reto Stauffer , Achim Zeileis

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. This, in turn, is exacting a significant toll in communities worldwide. While prediction skills are increasing with advances in numerical weather…

Machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored in understanding the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere and furthering weather forecasting. There has been increasing interest from technology companies, government…

Deep learning offers promising capabilities for the statistical downscaling of climate and weather forecasts, with generative approaches showing particular success in capturing fine-scale precipitation patterns. However, most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Paula Harder , Christian Lessig , Matthew Chantry , Francis Pelletier , David Rolnick

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in…

Heavy precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) may result in disasters, such as floods and landslides, leading to substantial economic damage and loss of life. Prediction of TC precipitation based on ensemble post-processing procedures…

The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm using Deep Learning (DL)and in particular, Recurrent Neural Networks(RNNs). Motivated by recent advances in renewable energy integration and smart grids, we apply our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-27 Amir Ghaderi , Borhan M. Sanandaji , Faezeh Ghaderi