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For complex simulation problems, inferring parameters often precludes the use of classical likelihood-based techniques due to intractable likelihoods. Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods offer a likelihood-free approach to directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Haley Rosso , Talea Mayo

Bayesian statistical inference loses predictive optimality when generative models are misspecified. Working within an existing coherent loss-based generalisation of Bayesian inference, we show existing Modular/Cut-model inference is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Chris U. Carmona , Geoff K. Nicholls

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a model-based approach for gradient-free black-box function optimization. Typically, BO is powered by a Gaussian process (GP), whose algorithmic complexity is cubic in the number of evaluations. Hence, GP-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-11 Valerio Perrone , Rodolphe Jenatton , Matthias Seeger , Cedric Archambeau

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) deals with statistical inference in problems where the data are generated from a system that is described by a complex stochastic simulator. The challenge for inference in these problems is that the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-17 David Refaeli , Mira Marcus-Kalish , David M. Steinberg

This paper deals with the identification of linear stochastic dynamical systems, where the unknowns include system coefficients and noise variances. Conventional approaches that rely on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) require…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 Jinwen Xu , Qin Lu , Yaakov Bar-Shalom

We introduce Deep Adaptive Design (DAD), a method for amortizing the cost of adaptive Bayesian experimental design that allows experiments to be run in real-time. Traditional sequential Bayesian optimal experimental design approaches…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-14 Adam Foster , Desi R. Ivanova , Ilyas Malik , Tom Rainforth

In high-dimensional settings, Bayesian optimization (BO) can be expensive and infeasible. The random embedding Bayesian optimization algorithm is commonly used to address high-dimensional BO challenges. However, this method relies on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Jiaming Lu , Rong J. B. Zhu

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an integral part of automated scientific discovery -- the so-called self-driving lab -- where human inputs are ideally minimal or at least non-blocking. However, scientists often have strong intuition, and thus…

Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Peter Collett , Alexander Johannes Stasik , Simone Casolo , Signe Riemer-Sørensen

Sample efficient learning of manipulation skills poses a major challenge in robotics. While recent approaches demonstrate impressive advances in the type of task that can be addressed and the sensing modalities that can be incorporated,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Adrian Röfer , Iman Nematollahi , Tim Welschehold , Wolfram Burgard , Abhinav Valada

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method is popular for solving non-convex optimization problems in machine learning. This work investigates SGD from a viewpoint of graduated optimization, which is a widely applied approach for non-convex…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-15 Da Li , Jingjing Wu , Qingrun Zhang

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient optimization algorithm widely employed across various applications. In some challenging BO tasks, input uncertainty arises due to the inevitable randomness in the optimization process, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Lin Yang , Junlong Lyu , Wenlong Lyu , Zhitang Chen

The utilization of Bayesian methods has been widely acknowledged as a viable solution for tackling various challenges in electronic integrated circuit (IC) design under stochastic process variation, including circuit performance modeling,…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-20 Zhengqi Gao , Duane S. Boning

Simulation-based optimization using agent-based models is typically carried out under the assumption that the gradient describing the sensitivity of the simulation output to the input cannot be evaluated directly. To still apply…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-24 Philipp Andelfinger

Spins in gated semiconductor quantum dots (QDs) are a promising platform for Hubbard model simulation inaccessible to computation. Precise control of the tunnel couplings by tuning voltages on metallic gates is vital for a successful…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2022-10-07 Ludmila Szulakowska , Jun Dai

Stochastic gradient methods have been a popular and powerful choice of optimization methods, aimed at minimizing functions. Their advantage lies in the fact that that one approximates the gradient as opposed to using the full Jacobian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-26 Neil K. Chada , Philip J. Herbert

Zeroth-order optimization (ZOO) is an important framework for stochastic optimization when gradients are unavailable or expensive to compute. A potential limitation of existing ZOO methods is the bias inherent in most gradient estimators…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Shaocong Ma , Heng Huang

Advanced experimental measurements are crucial for driving theoretical developments and unveiling novel phenomena in condensed matter and material physics, which often suffer from the scarcity of facility resources and increasing…

Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is traditionally formulated as a nested optimization and reliability problem. Although surrogate models are generally employed to improve efficiency, the approach remains computationally…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-08 M. Moustapha , B. Sudret

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) [Liu and Wang, 2016] performs approximate Bayesian inference by representing the posterior with a set of particles. However, SVGD suffers from variance collapse, i.e. poor predictions due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-27 Ola Rønning , Eric Nalisnick , Christophe Ley , Padhraic Smyth , Thomas Hamelryck
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