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Related papers: Simulating counterfactuals

200 papers

Reinforcement learning control algorithms face significant challenges due to out-of-distribution and inefficient exploration problems. While model-based reinforcement learning enhances the agent's reasoning and planning capabilities by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Sunbowen Lee , Yicheng Gong , Chao Deng

There is a broad consensus on the importance of deep learning models in tasks involving complex data. Often, an adequate understanding of these models is required when focusing on the transparency of decisions in human-critical…

We consider the problem of estimating the counterfactual joint distribution of multiple quantities of interests (e.g., outcomes) in a multivariate causal model extended from the classical difference-in-difference design. Existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-03 Thong Pham , Shohei Shimizu , Hideitsu Hino , Tam Le

Ensuring fairness in machine learning predictions is a critical challenge, especially when models are deployed in sensitive domains such as credit scoring, healthcare, and criminal justice. While many fairness interventions rely on data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Irina Arévalo , Marcos Oliva

The counterfactual distribution models the effect of the treatment in the untreated group. While most of the work focuses on the expected values of the treatment effect, one may be interested in the whole counterfactual distribution or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-04 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Dino Sejdinovic

We address the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data. Pearl (2000) argues that counterfactuals must be identifiable (i.e., recoverable from the observed data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Ainkaran Santhirasekaram , Ben Glocker

LLM-based social simulations can generate believable community interactions, enabling ``policy wind tunnels'' where governance interventions are tested before deployment. But believability is not causality. Claims like ``intervention $A$…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Agam Goyal , Yian Wang , Eshwar Chandrasekharan , Hari Sundaram

Due to the increasing use of Machine Learning models in high stakes decision making settings, it has become increasingly important to have tools to understand how models arrive at decisions. Assuming a trained Supervised Classification…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-20 Emilio Carrizosa , Jasone Ramírez-Ayerbe , Dolores Romero Morales

Counterfactual explanations have emerged as a prominent method in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), providing intuitive and actionable insights into Machine Learning model decisions. In contrast to other traditional feature…

A method for counterfactual explanation of machine learning survival models is proposed. One of the difficulties of solving the counterfactual explanation problem is that the classes of examples are implicitly defined through outcomes of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Maxim S. Kovalev , Lev V. Utkin

Causal inference analysis is the estimation of the effects of actions on outcomes. In the context of healthcare data this means estimating the outcome of counter-factual treatments (i.e. including treatments that were not observed) on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-21 Yishai Shimoni , Chen Yanover , Ehud Karavani , Yaara Goldschmnidt

The recent adoption of machine learning as a tool in real world decision making has spurred interest in understanding how these decisions are being made. Counterfactual Explanations are a popular interpretable machine learning technique…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Andrew O'Brien , Edward Kim

Counterfactuals play a pivotal role in the two distinct data science fields of causal inference (CI) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). While the core idea behind counterfactuals remains the same in both fields--the examination…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Galit Shmueli , David Martens , Jaewon Yoo , Travis Greene

Group fairness definitions such as Demographic Parity and Equal Opportunity make assumptions about the underlying decision-problem that restrict them to classification problems. Prior work has translated these definitions to other machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Jack Blandin , Ian Kash

Recent proposal for counterfactual computation [Hosten et al., Nature, 439, 949 (2006)] is analyzed. It is argued that the method does not provide counterfactual computation for all possible outcomes. The explanation involves a novel…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-06-26 Lev Vaidman

Counterfactual explanations are viewed as an effective way to explain machine learning predictions. This interest is reflected by a relatively young literature with already dozens of algorithms aiming to generate such explanations. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-05 Raphael Mazzine , David Martens

Counterfactual explanations constitute among the most popular methods for analyzing black-box systems since they can recommend cost-efficient and actionable changes to the input of a system to obtain the desired system output. While most of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 André Artelt , Andreas Gregoriades

Counterfactual instances are a powerful tool to obtain valuable insights into automated decision processes, describing the necessary minimal changes in the input space to alter the prediction towards a desired target. Most previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Robert-Florian Samoilescu , Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise

Given an observational study with $n$ independent but heterogeneous units, our goal is to learn the counterfactual distribution for each unit using only one $p$-dimensional sample per unit containing covariates, interventions, and outcomes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Abhin Shah , Raaz Dwivedi , Devavrat Shah , Gregory W. Wornell

As inductive inference and machine learning methods in computer science see continued success, researchers are aiming to describe ever more complex probabilistic models and inference algorithms. It is natural to ask whether there is a…

Logic · Mathematics 2019-11-19 Nathanael L. Ackerman , Cameron E. Freer , Daniel M. Roy