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We introduce a new instrumental variable (IV) estimator for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of endogeneity. Our estimator is based on double/debiased machine learning (DML) and uses efficient machine learning instruments…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Cyrill Scheidegger , Zijian Guo , Peter Bühlmann

Nonlinearity and endogeneity are prevalent challenges in causal analysis using observational data. This paper proposes an inference procedure for a nonlinear and endogenous marginal effect function, defined as the derivative of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-19 Qingliang Fan , Zijian Guo , Ziwei Mei , Cun-Hui Zhang

Linear regressions with endogeneity are widely used to estimate causal effects. This paper studies a framework that involves two common practical issues: endogeneity of the regressors and heteroskedasticity that depends on endogenous…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-10 Javier Alejo , Antonio F. Galvao , Julian Martinez-Iriarte , Gabriel Montes-Rojas

When an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors, an instrumental variable (IV) can be used to identify and estimate certain causal contrasts. Identification of the marginal average treatment effect (ATE) from IVs relies on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-02 Alexander W. Levis , Matteo Bonvini , Zhenghao Zeng , Luke Keele , Edward H. Kennedy

The empirical literature on program evaluation limits its scope almost exclusively to models where treatment effects are homogenous for observationally identical individuals. This paper considers a treatment effect model in which treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-20 Jason Abrevaya , Haiqing Xu

In this paper, I study the nonparametric identification and estimation of the marginal effect of an endogenous variable $X$ on the outcome variable $Y$, given a potentially mismeasured instrument variable $W^*$, without assuming linearity…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-23 Shaomin Wu

This paper discusses endogenous treatment models with duration outcomes, competing risks and random right censoring. The endogeneity issue is solved using a discrete instrumental variable. We show that the competing risks model generates a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Jad Beyhum , Jean-Pierre Florens , Ingrid Van Keilegom

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan

Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Danielle Tsao , Krikamol Muandet , Frederick Eberhardt , Emilija Perković

Certain causal models involving unmeasured variables induce no independence constraints among the observed variables but imply, nevertheless, inequality contraints on the observed distribution. This paper derives a general formula for such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Judea Pearl

Standard instrumental variables (IV) methods identify a Local Average Treatment Effect under monotonicity, which rules out defiers. In many empirical environments, however, distinct instruments may induce heterogeneous and even opposing…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-16 Johann Caro-Burnett

Instrumental variables (IVs) are often continuous, arising in diverse fields such as economics, epidemiology, and the social sciences. Existing approaches for continuous IVs typically impose strong parametric models or assume homogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Mei Dong , Lin Liu , Dingke Tang , Geoffrey Liu , Wei Xu , Linbo Wang

This article introduces an L-estimator for the semiparametric Tobit model with endogenous regressors. The estimation procedure follows a two-stage approach: the first stage employs least squares, while the second stage utilizes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-10 Swati Shukla , Subhra Sankar Dhar , Shalabh

I propose a locally robust semiparametric framework for estimating causal effects using the popular examiner IV design, in the presence of many examiners and possibly many covariates relative to the sample size. The key ingredient of this…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-01 Lonjezo Sithole

We study the problem of estimating causal effects under hidden confounding in the following unpaired data setting: we observe some covariates $X$ and an outcome $Y$ under different experimental conditions (environments) but do not observe…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-22 Felix Schur , Niklas Pfister , Peng Ding , Sach Mukherjee , Jonas Peters

Exclusion and exogeneity are core assumptions in instrumental variable (IV) analyses, but their empirical validity is often debated. This paper develops new sensitivity analyses for these assumptions. Our results accommodate arbitrary…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-10 Paul Diegert , Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier

We develop a novel test of the instrumental variable identifying assumptions for heterogeneous treatment effect models with conditioning covariates. We assume semiparametric dependence between potential outcomes and conditioning covariates.…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-19 Thomas Carr , Toru Kitagawa

Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Nikolaj Thams , Rikke Søndergaard , Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

Instrumental variables (IV) methods are central to applied microeconomics. While classical approaches assume linear models with constant effects, recent literature has shifted toward the local average treatment effect (LATE) framework to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-15 Tymon Słoczyński , Liyang Sun , S. Derya Uysal

Inference for causal effects can benefit from the availability of an instrumental variable (IV) which, by definition, is associated with the given exposure, but not with the outcome of interest other than through a causal exposure effect.…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-13 Stijn Vansteelandt , Jack Bowden , Manoochehr Babanezhad , Els Goetghebeur