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When decision-makers can directly intervene, policy evaluation algorithms give valid causal estimates. In off-policy evaluation (OPE), there may exist unobserved variables that both impact the dynamics and are used by the unknown behavior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-05 David Bruns-Smith

In this work, we propose an approach for assessing sensitivity to unobserved confounding in studies with multiple outcomes. We demonstrate how prior knowledge unique to the multi-outcome setting can be leveraged to strengthen causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-26 Jiajing Zheng , Jiaxi Wu , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

In experimental and observational data settings, researchers often have limited knowledge of the reasons for missing outcomes. To address this uncertainty, we propose bounds on causal effects for missing outcomes, accommodating the scenario…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Max Rubinstein , Denis Agniel , Larry Han , Marcela Horvitz-Lennon , Sharon-Lise Normand

We consider the problem of computing bounds for causal queries on causal graphs with unobserved confounders and discrete valued observed variables, where identifiability does not hold. Existing non-parametric approaches for computing such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Madhumitha Shridharan , Garud Iyengar

Inferring the causal effect of a non-randomly assigned exposure on an outcome requires adjusting for common causes of the exposure and outcome to avoid biased conclusions. Notwithstanding the efforts investigators routinely make to measure…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Stijn Vansteelandt

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Minna Genbäck , Xavier de Luna

No unmeasured confounding is often assumed in estimating treatment effects in observational data when using approaches such as propensity scores and inverse probability weighting. However, in many such studies due to the limitation of the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-08-06 Rong Huang , Ronghui Xu , Parambir S. Dulai

We study the problem of deriving policies, or rules, that when enacted on a complex system, cause a desired outcome. Absent the ability to perform controlled experiments, such rules have to be inferred from past observations of the system's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Kailash Budhathoki , Mario Boley , Jilles Vreeken

Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines. The two long-standing approaches to estimate causal effects are observational and experimental (randomized) studies. Observational studies can suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Sepehr Elahi , Sina Akbari , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash , Patrick Thiran

Consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of some attribute of a text document; for example: what effect does writing a polite vs. rude email have on response time? To estimate a causal effect from observational data, we need to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-09 Lin Gui , Victor Veitch

Observational data is increasingly used as a means for making individual-level causal predictions and intervention recommendations. The foremost challenge of causal inference from observational data is hidden confounding, whose presence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Nathan Kallus , Aahlad Manas Puli , Uri Shalit

This paper develops a general causal inference method for treatment effects models with noisily measured confounders. The key feature is that a large set of noisy measurements are linked with the underlying latent confounders through an…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-14 Yingjie Feng

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

Causal discovery from data affected by unobserved variables is an important but difficult problem to solve. The effects that unobserved variables have on the relationships between observed variables are more complex in nonlinear cases than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

Inferring causal relationships between variable pairs in the observational study is crucial but challenging, due to the presence of unmeasured confounding. While previous methods employed the negative controls to adjust for the confounding…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 Yong Wu , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

We consider the the problem of identifying causal effects given a high-dimensional treatment vector in the presence of low-dimensional latent confounders. We assume a parametric structural causal model in which the outcome is permitted to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-11 Yuhao Wang , Rajen Shah

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong