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Machine Learning (ML) has shown great promise in revolutionizing weather forecasting, yet most ML systems still rely on initial conditions generated by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. End-to-end ML models aim to eliminate this…
Severe convection produces localized hazards that often require warnings before radar echoes fully reveal storm development. Convective initiation and the maintenance of intense convection remain challenging for radar-only nowcasting…
Accurate weather forecasting is critical for science and society. Yet, existing methods have not managed to simultaneously have the properties of high accuracy, low uncertainty, and high computational efficiency. On one hand, to quantify…
Accurate subseasonal weather forecasting remains a major challenge due to the inherently chaotic nature of the atmosphere, which limits the predictive skill of conventional models beyond the mid-range horizon (approximately 15 days). In…
The advent of Large Weather Models (LWMs) has marked a turning point in data-driven forecasting, with many models now outperforming traditional numerical systems in the medium range. However, achieving stable, long-range autoregressive…
Latent diffusion models (LDMs) suffer from limited diffusability in high-resolution (<=0.25{\deg}) ensemble weather forecasting, where diffusability characterizes how easily a latent data distribution can be modeled by a diffusion process.…
Among various soft computing approaches for time series forecasting, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) have shown remarkable results as a tool to model and analyze the dynamics of complex systems. FCM have similarities to recurrent neural networks…
Real-world data contain uncertainty and variations that can be correlated to external variables, known as randomness. An alternative cause of randomness is chaos, which can be an important component of chaotic time series. One of the…
Historical observations of severe weather and simulated severe weather environments (i.e., features) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System v12 (GEFSv12) Reforecast Dataset (GEFS/R) are used in conjunction to train and test random forest…
The hybrid model combines the physics-based primitive-equations model SPEEDY with a machine learning-based (ML-based) model component, while ERA5 reanalyses provide the presumed true states of the atmosphere. Six-hourly simulated noisy…
Global climate models (GCMs), typically run at ~100-km resolution, capture large-scale environmental conditions but cannot resolve convection and cloud processes at kilometer scales. Convection-permitting models offer higher-resolution…
Data-driven hourly weather forecasting models often face the challenge of error accumulation in long-term predictions. The problem is exacerbated by non-physical temporal discontinuities present in widely-used training datasets such as…
In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading $43$ years of hourly global weather data from the…
FourCastNet 3 advances global weather modeling by implementing a scalable, geometric machine learning (ML) approach to probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The approach is designed to respect spherical geometry and to accurately model the…
The leading operational Global Ocean Forecasting Systems (GOFSs) use physics-driven numerical forecasting models that solve the partial differential equations with expensive computation. Recently, specifically in atmosphere weather…
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel…
We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…
The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting. However, these models are often limited by…
Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea…
Sequential recommendation aims to model users' evolving preferences based on their historical interactions. Recent advances leverage Transformer-based architectures to capture global dependencies, but existing methods often suffer from high…