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This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily-zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for…

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-25 Pascal Meurer , Sebastian Buschow , Svenja Szemkus , Petra Friederichs

Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-08-04 Vera Melinda Galfi , Valerio Lucarini

Appropriate modelling of extreme skew surges is crucial, particularly for coastal risk management. Our study focuses on modelling extreme skew surges along the French Atlantic coast, with a particular emphasis on investigating the extremal…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-07 Nathan Huet , Philippe Naveau , Anne Sabourin

Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-14 Valérian Jacques-Dumas , Francesco Ragone , Pierre Borgnat , Patrice Abry , Freddy Bouchet

In this study we consider the problem of detecting and quantifying changes in the distribution of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) in a large gridded data set of European daily temperature during the years 1950-2018.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-03 Graeme Auld , Gabriele Hegerl , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-10-14 Isabela S. Cabral , Ian R. Young , Alessandro Toffoli

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-09 Felix S. Fauer , Henning W. Rust

Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Dominik Stiller , Gregory J. Hakim

The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-02-03 Saïd Qasmi , Emilia Sanchez-Gomez , Yohan Ruprich-Robert , Julien Boé , Christophe Cassou

Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-09-14 Aytaç Paçal , Birgit Hassler , Katja Weigel , M. Levent Kurnaz , Michael F. Wehner , Veronika Eyring

Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is of strong interest in climate modeling because of its role in both severe weather and in model construction. Extreme levels of CAPE ($>$ 2000 J/kg) are associated with high-impact weather…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-27 Ziwei Wang , James A. Franke , Zhenqi Luo , Elisabeth J. Moyer

Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-07-22 Øyvind Breivik , Ole Johan Aarnes , Saleh Abdalla , Jean-Raymond Bidlot , Peter A. E. M. Janssen

Decadal-scale interactions between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans play a crucial role in global climate variability through bidirectional teleconnections. Current climate models show persistent biases in representing these basin…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-08 Yan Xia , Yong-Fu Lin , Jin-Yi Yu , Walter Hannah , Mike Pritchard

We investigate a coupled atmosphere-ocean model including the mechanical and thermodynamical interaction between the two fluids for the mid-latitudes. The formulation combines a multilayer quasi-geostrophic dynamical framework with…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Federico Fornasaro , Tobias Kuna , Giulia Carigi

The heating of the Sun's corona has been explained by several different mechanisms including wave dissipation and magnetic reconnection. While both have been shown capable of supplying the requisite power, neither has been used in a…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-02-20 Kai E. Yang , Dana W. Longcope , M. D. Ding , Yang Guo

Weather and climate extremes such as heatwaves are crucial climate hazards to people and ecosystems worldwide. In any region, climate change may alter their characteristics in complex ways so that rigorous and holistic quantification of the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-29 Gottfried Kirchengast , Stephanie J. Haas , Jürgen Fuchsberger

One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-08 Francesco Ragone , Freddy Bouchet

Accurate information on waves and storm surges is essential to understand coastal hazards that are expected to increase in view of global warming and rising sea levels. Despite the recent advancement in development and application of…

Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…