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This paper develops a conditional independence (CI) test from a conditional density ratio (CDR) for weakly dependent data. The main contribution is presenting a closed-form expression for the estimated conditional density ratio function…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-25 Chunrong Ai , Zixuan Xu , Zheng Zhang

This paper uses model symmetries in the instrumental variable (IV) regression to derive an invariant test for the causal structural parameter. Contrary to popular belief, we show that there exist model symmetries when equation errors are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-02 Marcelo J. Moreira , Mahrad Sharifvaghefi , Geert Ridder

A fundamental challenge of scientific research is inferring causal relations based on observed data. One commonly used approach involves utilizing structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among interacting…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-13 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

Testing conditional independence has many applications, such as in Bayesian network learning and causal discovery. Different test methods have been proposed. However, existing methods generally can not work when only discretized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-19 Boyang Sun , Yu Yao , Guang-Yuan Hao , Yumou Qiu , Kun Zhang

The Y-test is a useful tool for detecting missing confounders in the context of a multivariate regression.However, it is rarely used in practice since it requires identifying multiple conditionally independent instruments, which is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-22 Jaime Sevilla , Alexandra Mayn

Causal discovery is a powerful technique for identifying causal relationships among variables in data. It has been widely used in various applications in software engineering. Causal discovery extensively involves conditional independence…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Pingchuan Ma , Zhenlan Ji , Peisen Yao , Shuai Wang , Kui Ren

Independence screening is a powerful method for variable selection for `Big Data' when the number of variables is massive. Commonly used independence screening methods are based on marginal correlations or variations of it. In many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-02 Emre Barut , Jianqing Fan , Anneleen Verhasselt

Constraint-based causal discovery is brittle in finite-sample regimes because erroneous conditional-independence (CI) decisions can cascade into substantial structural errors. We propose Quantitative Argumentation for Causal Discovery…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Sheng Wei , Yulin Chen , Beishui Liao

Many relations of scientific interest are nonlinear, and even in linear systems distributions are often non-Gaussian, for example in fMRI BOLD data. A class of search procedures for causal relations in high dimensional data relies on sample…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-30 Joseph D. Ramsey

Constraint-based causal discovery relies on numerous conditional independence tests (CITs), but its practical applicability is severely constrained by the prohibitive computational cost, especially as CITs themselves have high time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Zhengkang Guan , Kun Kuang

Identifying relationships among stochastic processes is a core objective in many fields, such as economics. While the standard toolkit for multivariate time series analysis has many advantages, it can be difficult to capture nonlinear…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Michael Wieck-Sosa , Michel F. C. Haddad , Aaditya Ramdas

Free choice (or statistical independence) assumption in a hidden variable model (HVM) means that the settings chosen by experimenters do not depend on the values of the hidden variable. The assumption of context-independent (CI) mapping in…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-09-02 Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov

Causal modeling has long been an attractive topic for many researchers and in recent decades there has seen a surge in theoretical development and discovery algorithms. Generally discovery algorithms can be divided into two approaches:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-06 Ridho Rahmadi , Perry Groot , Marianne Heins , Hans Knoop , Tom Heskes

Constraint-based causal discovery methods leverage conditional independence tests to infer causal relationships in a wide variety of applications. Just as the majority of machine learning methods, existing work focuses on studying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Siyuan Guo , Viktor Tóth , Bernhard Schölkopf , Ferenc Huszár

The estimation of causal effects using quasiexperiments often relies on the use of unusual or serendipitous sources of exogenous variation. When the goal is estimating the same causal effects across many different settings, the same unusual…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-26 Nick Huntington-Klein

A fundamental problem of causal discovery is cause-effect inference, learning the correct causal direction between two random variables. Significant progress has been made through modelling the effect as a function of its cause and a noise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Xiangyu Sun , Oliver Schulte

We describe a data-efficient, kernel-based approach to statistical testing of conditional independence. A major challenge of conditional independence testing is to obtain the correct test level (the specified upper bound on the rate of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Roman Pogodin , Antonin Schrab , Yazhe Li , Danica J. Sutherland , Arthur Gretton

Conditional independence testing (CIT) is a common task in machine learning, e.g., for variable selection, and a main component of constraint-based causal discovery. While most current CIT approaches assume that all variables are numerical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Oana-Iuliana Popescu , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

Learning causal relations from observational data is a fundamental problem with wide-ranging applications across many fields. Constraint-based methods infer the underlying causal structure by performing conditional independence tests.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Marc Franquesa Monés , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck