Related papers: Multilevel Surrogate-based Control Variates
This paper studies the multilevel Monte-Carlo estimator for the expectation of a maximum of conditional expectations. This problem arises naturally when considering many stress tests and appears in the calculation of the interest rate…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for performing approximate inference in complex probabilistic models of continuous variables. In common with many MCMC methods, however, the standard HMC…
We present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of variably saturated porous media flow that are modeled using the Richards' equation. We propose a stochastic extension for the empirical models that are…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty quantification in PDE models. It combines approximations at different levels of accuracy using a hierarchy of…
We develop a modular approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for unnormalized target densities. In this approach, Markov chains are constructed in parallel, each constrained to a subset of the target space. The Monte Carlo…
Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…
Several methods have been proposed in the literature to solve reliability-based optimization problems, where failure probabilities are design constraints. However, few methods address the problem of life-cycle cost or risk optimization,…
We present novel Monte Carlo (MC) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to determine the unbiased covariance of random variables using h-statistics. The advantage of this procedure lies in the unbiased construction of the estimator's…
In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the…
Due to the need for robust uncertainty quantification, Bayesian neural learning has gained attention in the era of deep learning and big data. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods typically implement Bayesian inference which faces…
Subsurface remediation often involves reconstruction of contaminant release history from sparse observations of solute concentration. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), the most accurate and general method for this task, is rarely used in…
In this work, we extend the hybrid Chernoff tau-leap method to the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) setting. Inspired by the work of Anderson and Higham on the tau-leap MLMC method with uniform time steps, we develop a novel algorithm that is…
A multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for quantifying model-form uncertainties associated with the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations is presented. Two, high-dimensional, stochastic extensions of the RANS equations are…
Accurately and efficiently estimating system performance under uncertainty is paramount in power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo simulation is often used for this purpose, but convergence may be slow, especially when detailed…
Sampling from a log-concave distribution function is one core problem that has wide applications in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. While most gradient free methods have slow convergence rate, the Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) that…
Multiscale simulations utilizing high-fidelity, microscopic Monte Carlo models to provide the nonlinear response for continuum models can easily become computationally intractable. Surrogate models for the high-fidelity Monte Carlo models…
This paper considers the classical problem of sampling with Monte Carlo methods a target rare event distribution defined by a score function that is very expensive to compute. We assume we can build using evaluations of the true score, an…
Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) reduces the total computational cost of financial option pricing by combining SDE approximations with multiple resolutions. This paper explores a further avenue for reducing cost and improving power efficiency…
Variational Bayes (VB) methods have emerged as a fast and computationally-efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for scalable Bayesian estimation of mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) models. It has been established…
We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…