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This paper proposes improvements over earlier work by Nazareth and Blei (2022) for estimating the depth of Bayesian neural networks. Here, we propose a discrete truncated normal distribution over the network depth to independently learn its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Bart van Erp , Bert de Vries

Simulation-based inference methods have been shown to be inaccurate in the data-poor regime, when training simulations are limited or expensive. Under these circumstances, the inference network is particularly prone to overfitting, and…

Semi-structured regression models enable the joint modeling of interpretable structured and complex unstructured feature effects. The structured model part is inspired by statistical models and can be used to infer the input-output…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Daniel Dold , David Rügamer , Beate Sick , Oliver Dürr

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Samuel Kessler , Adam Cobb , Tim G. J. Rudner , Stefan Zohren , Stephen J. Roberts

Recently, multilayer bootstrap network (MBN) has demonstrated promising performance in unsupervised dimensionality reduction. It can learn compact representations in standard data sets, i.e. MNIST and RCV1. However, as a bootstrap method,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-24 Xiao-Lei Zhang

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-13 Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Although deep learning models have achieved state-of-the-art performance on a number of vision tasks, generalization over high dimensional multi-modal data, and reliable predictive uncertainty estimation are still active areas of research.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Samarth Sinha , Homanga Bharadhwaj , Anirudh Goyal , Hugo Larochelle , Animesh Garg , Florian Shkurti

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with latent variables are probabilistic models which can automatically identify complex stochastic patterns in the data. We describe and study in these models a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-15 Stefan Depeweg , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Finale Doshi-Velez , Steffen Udluft

Despite their theoretical appealingness, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are left behind in real-world adoption, mainly due to persistent concerns on their scalability, accessibility, and reliability. In this work, we develop the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Zhijie Deng , Jun Zhu

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer a natural probabilistic formulation for inference in deep learning models. Despite their popularity, their optimality has received limited attention through the lens of statistical decision theory. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Daniel Andrew Coulson , Martin T. Wells

Bayesian methods are particularly effective for addressing inverse problems due to their ability to manage uncertainties inherent in the inference process. However, employing these methods with costly forward models poses significant…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-10-30 G. Robalo Rei , C. P. Schmidt , J. Nitzler , M. Dinkel , W. A. Wall

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

Many Bayesian inference problems involve high dimensional models for which only a subset of the model variables are of actual interest. All other variables are just nuisance parameters that one would ideally like to integrate out…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-13 Fabián González , Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Miguez

The use of Deep Neural Network (DNN) models in risk-based decision-making has attracted extensive attention with broad applications in medical, finance, manufacturing, and quality control. To mitigate prediction-related risks in decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-11 Maryam Kheirandish , Shengfan Zhang , Donald G. Catanzaro , Valeriu Crudu

Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) is the canonical approach for understanding the behavior of physical systems. However, large scale solutions of PDEs using state of the art discretization techniques remains an expensive…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-01-14 Xiaoxuan Zhang , Krishna Garikipati

Estimated uncertainty by approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks are prone to miscalibration, which leads to overconfident predictions in critical tasks that have a clear asymmetric cost or significant losses. Here, we extend the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Biraja Ghoshal , Allan Tucker

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have become a principal approach to alleviate overconfident predictions in deep learning, but they often suffer from scaling issues due to a large number of distribution parameters. In this paper, we discover…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-14 Shiye Lei , Zhuozhuo Tu , Leszek Rutkowski , Feng Zhou , Li Shen , Fengxiang He , Dacheng Tao

Model uncertainty quantification involves measuring and evaluating the uncertainty linked to a model's predictions, helping assess their reliability and confidence. Noise injection is a technique used to enhance the robustness of neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 Xueqiong Yuan , Jipeng Li , Ercan Engin Kuruoglu

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-05-04 M. G. B. Blum , O. Francois
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