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Related papers: Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty Quantification…

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Turbulent flows are of central importance across applications in science and engineering problems. For design and analysis, scientists and engineers use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations using turbulence models. Turbulent…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-10-18 Minghan Chu , Weicheng Qian

Predicting the behavior of complex systems in engineering often involves significant uncertainty about operating conditions, such as external loads, environmental effects, and manufacturing variability. As a result, uncertainty…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-17 S. Marelli , S. Schär , B. Sudret

This study presents a comprehensive framework for uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design optimization of plasma etching in semiconductor manufacturing. The framework is demonstrated using experimental measurements of etched depth…

Popular Physics · Physics 2025-11-10 Yongsu Jung , Minji Kang , Muyoung Kim , Min Sup Choi , Hyeong-U Kim , Jaekwang Kim

Predicting the evolution of turbulent flows is central across science and engineering. Most studies rely on simulations with turbulence models, whose empirical simplifications introduce epistemic uncertainty. The Eigenspace Perturbation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Minghan Chu , Weicheng Qian

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Kamaljit Chowdhary , Paul Dupuis

To achieve virtual certification for industrial design, quantifying the uncertainties in simulation-driven processes is crucial. We discuss a physics-constrained approach to account for epistemic uncertainty of turbulence models. In order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-12 Marcel Matha , Christian Morsbach

Aerodynamic optimization is ubiquitous in the design of most engineering systems interacting with fluids. A common approach is to optimize a performance function defined by a choice of an aerodynamic model, e.g., turbulence RANS model, and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-04 Lluís Jofre , Alireza Doostan

This paper outlines an approach towards improved rigour in tokamak turbulence transport model validation within integrated modelling. Gaussian process regression (GPR) techniques were applied for profile fitting during the preparation of…

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Weizhu Qian , Dalin Zhang , Yan Zhao , Kai Zheng , James J. Q. Yu

In order to achieve a more virtual design and certification process of jet engines in aviation industry, the uncertainty bounds for computational fluid dynamics have to be known. This work shows the application of a machine learning…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Marcel Matha , Christian Morsbach

Modelling the sudden depressurisation of superheated liquids through nozzles is a challenge because the pressure drop causes rapid flash boiling of the liquid. The resulting jet usually demonstrates a wide range of structures, including…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-12-15 David Schmidt , Romit Maulik , Konstantinos G. Lyras

Accurately simulating coupled physical processes under uncertainty is essential for reliable modeling and design in performance-critical applications such as combustion systems. Ablative heat shield design, as a specific example of this…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-10-07 Diba Behnoudfar , Kyle E. Niemeyer

The study of complex systems is often based on computationally intensive, high-fidelity, simulations. To build confidence in the prediction accuracy of such simulations, the impact of uncertainties in model inputs on the quantities of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-01-19 Lluis Jofre , Gianluca Geraci , Hillary Fairbanks , Alireza Doostan , Gianluca Iaccarino

Accurate prediction of pressure and velocity fluctuations in turbulent flows is essential for understanding flow-induced vibration and structural fatigue. This study investigates the role of turbulence model parameter uncertainty in such…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-11-19 Ali Eidi , Richard P. Dwight

This paper introduces a stochastic simulator for seismic uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for performance-based earthquake engineering. The proposed simulator extends the recently developed dimensionality reduction-based…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-09-27 Jungho Kim , Ziqi Wang

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

A general methodology is proposed to differentiate the likelihood of energetic-particle-driven instabilities to produce frequency chirping or fixed-frequency oscillations. The method employs numerically calculated eigenstructures and…

The semi-empirical nature of best-estimate models closing the balance equations of thermal-hydraulic (TH) system codes is well-known as a significant source of uncertainty for accuracy of output predictions. This uncertainty, called model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-11 Guillaume Damblin , François Bachoc , Sandro Gazzo , Lucia Sargentini , Alberto Ghione

The turbulence observed in the scrape-off-layer of a tokamak is often characterized by intermittent events of bursty nature, a feature which raises concerns about the prediction of heat loads on the physical boundaries of the device. It…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2014-12-18 J. Anderson , F. Halpern , P. Xanthopoulos , P. Ricci , I. Furno