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Traditional statistical inference considers relatively small data sets and the corresponding theoretical analysis focuses on the asymptotic behavior of a statistical estimator when the number of samples approaches infinity. However, many…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-03 Jon Wellner , Tong Zhang

Birth-death processes form a natural class where ideas and results on large deviations can be tested. In this paper, we derive a large deviation principle under the assumption that the rate of a jump down (death) is growing asymptotically…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-21 N. D. Vvedenskaya , A. V. Logachov , Y. M. Suhov , A. A. Yambartsev

A basic result of large deviations theory is Sanov's theorem, which states that the sequence of empirical measures of independent and identically distributed samples satisfies the large deviation principle with rate function given by…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-17 Markus Fischer

Multidimensional record patterns are random sets of lattice points defined by means of a recursive stochastic construction. The patterns thus generated owe their richness to the fact that the construction is not based on a total order,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-06-11 P. L. Krapivsky , J. M. Luck

The Random Language Model, proposed as a simple model of human languages, is defined by the averaged model of a probabilistic context-free grammar. This grammar expresses the process of sentence generation as a tree graph with nodes having…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2022-07-07 Kai Nakaishi , Koji Hukushima

We provide asymptotic theory for certain functions of the sample autocovariance matrices of a high-dimensional time series with infinite fourth moment. The time series exhibits linear dependence across the coordinates and through time.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-16 Johannes Heiny , Thomas Mikosch

A large deviation principle is established for a general class of stochastic flows in the small noise limit. This result is then applied to a Bayesian formulation of an image matching problem, and an approximate maximum likelihood property…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-24 Amarjit Budhiraja , Paul Dupuis , Vasileios Maroulas

We derive the distribution of the eigenvalues of a large sample covariance matrix when the data is dependent in time. More precisely, the dependence for each variable $i=1,...,p$ is modelled as a linear process…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-19 Oliver Pfaffel , Eckhard Schlemm

We consider the standard first passage percolation model on $\mathbb Z^d$ with bounded and bounded away from zero weights. We show that the rescaled passage time $\widetilde{\mathbf T}_{n,X}$ restricted to a compact set $X$ satisfies a…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-16 Julien Verges

We establish a sharp large deviation principle for renewal-reward processes, supposing that each renewal involves a broad-sense reward taking values in a real separable Banach space. In fact, we demonstrate a weak large deviation principle…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-24 Marco Zamparo

We establish a large deviation principle for the largest eigenvalue of a rank one deformation of a matrix from the GUE or GOE. As a corollary, we get another proof of the phenomenon, well-known in learning theory and finance, that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-06 Mylène Maïda

It has been observed that the statistical distribution of the eigenvalues of random matrices possesses universal properties, independent of the probability law of the stochastic matrix. In this article we find the correlation functions of…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-30 B. Eynard

Phase transitions have been proposed as the origin of emergent abilities in large language models (LLMs), where new capabilities appear abruptly once models surpass critical thresholds of scale. Prior work, such as that of Wei et al.,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Noah Hong , Tao Hong

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated, in particular when X 1 is not…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-21 Fabien Brosset , Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux , Pierre Petit

When we cut an i.i.d. sequence of letters into words according to an independent renewal process, we obtain an i.i.d. sequence of words. In the \emph{annealed} large deviation principle (LDP) for the empirical process of words, the rate…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-05 Matthias Birkner , Andreas Greven , Frank den Hollander

The inference of Markov models from data on stochastic dynamical trajectories over the large time-window $T$ is revisited via the Large Deviations at Level 2.5 for the time-empirical density and the time-empirical flows. The goal is to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-07-01 Cecile Monthus

In classical statistics, the bias-variance trade-off describes how varying a model's complexity (e.g., number of fit parameters) affects its ability to make accurate predictions. According to this trade-off, optimal performance is achieved…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-05 Jason W. Rocks , Pankaj Mehta

We obtain a large deviations principle for the self-intersection local times for a symmetric random walk in dimension d>4. As an application, we obtain moderate deviations for random walk in random sceneries in some region of parameters.

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-30 Amine Asselah

We analytically evaluate the large deviation function in a simple model of classical particle transfer between two reservoirs. We illustrate how the asymptotic large time regime is reached starting from a special propagating initial…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-16 Upendra Harbola , Christian Van den Broeck , Katja Lindenberg

Large deviation theory offers a powerful and general statistical framework to study the asymptotic dynamical properties of rare events. The application of the formalism to concrete experimental situations is, however, often restricted by…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-09-13 Maxime Debiossac , Nikolai Kiesel , Eric Lutz