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Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often…
A central question in neuroscience is how self-organizing dynamic interactions in the brain emerge on their relatively static structural backbone. Due to the complexity of spatial and temporal dependencies between different brain areas,…
Identifying latent interactions within complex systems is key to unlocking deeper insights into their operational dynamics, including how their elements affect each other and contribute to the overall system behavior. For instance, in…
We study the problem of graph structure identification, i.e., of recovering the graph of dependencies among time series. We model these time series data as components of the state of linear stochastic networked dynamical systems. We assume…
A discrete-time modulus consensus model is considered in which the interaction among a family of networked agents is described by a time-dependent gain graph whose vertices correspond to agents and whose arcs are assigned complex numbers…
We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…
Excitatory point processes (i.e., event flows) occurring over dynamic graphs (i.e., evolving topologies) provide a fine-grained model to capture how discrete events may spread over time and space. How to effectively steer the event flows by…
A graphical model is a structured representation of the data generating process. The traditional method to reason over random variables is to perform inference in this graphical model. However, in many cases the generating process is only a…
Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between…
Over the past two decades, complex network theory provided the ideal framework for investigating the intimate relationships between the topological properties characterizing the wiring of connections among a system's unitary components and…
Understanding leadership dynamics in collective behavior is a key challenge in animal ecology, swarm robotics, and intelligent transportation. Traditional information-theoretic approaches, including Transfer Entropy (TE) and Time-Lagged…
Learning feature interactions is the key to success for the large-scale CTR prediction in Ads ranking and recommender systems. In industry, deep neural network-based models are widely adopted for modeling such problems. Researchers proposed…
We study human mobility networks through timeseries of contacts between individuals. Our proposed Random Walkers Induced temporal Graph (RWIG) model generates temporal graph sequences based on independent random walkers that traverse an…
Dynamic functional connectivity is an effective measure for the brain's responses to continuous stimuli. We propose an inferential method to detect the dynamic changes of brain networks based on time-varying graphical models. Whereas most…
Quantifying relationships between components of a complex system is critical to understanding the rich network of interactions that characterize the behavior of the system. Traditional methods for detecting pairwise dependence of time…
Time series anomaly detection aims to identify unusual patterns in data or deviations from systems' expected behavior. The reconstruction-based methods are the mainstream in this task, which learn point-wise representation via unsupervised…
The central nervous system is composed of many individual units -- from cells to areas -- that are connected with one another in a complex pattern of functional interactions that supports perception, action, and cognition. One natural and…
Graphs are an intuitive way to represent relationships between variables in fields such as finance and neuroscience. However, these graphs often need to be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to infer a latent…
Network science provides valuable insights across numerous disciplines including sociology, biology, neuroscience and engineering. A task of major practical importance in these application domains is inferring the network structure from…
Many time-evolving systems in nature, society and technology leave traces of the interactions within them. These interactions form temporal networks that reflect the states of the systems. In this work, we pursue a coarse-grained…