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Related papers: ACE: Active Learning for Causal Inference with Exp…

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We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-30 Manqing Liu , David R. Bellamy , Andrew L. Beam

One of the main tasks of causal inference is estimating well-defined causal parameters. One of the main causal parameters is the average causal effect (ACE) - the expected value of the individual level causal effects in the target…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-17 Fernando Pires Hartwig

We study how to efficiently estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) using adaptive experiments. In adaptive experiments, experimenters sequentially assign treatments to experimental units while updating treatment assignment probabilities…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Masahiro Kato , Takuya Ishihara , Junya Honda , Yusuke Narita

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu

In observational studies, potential unobserved confounding is a major barrier in isolating the average causal effect (ACE). In these scenarios, two main approaches are often used: confounder adjustment for causality (CAC) and instrumental…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Roy S. Zawadzki , Daniel L. Gillen

Modern causal inference methods allow machine learning to be used to weaken parametric modeling assumptions. However, the use of machine learning may result in complications for inference. Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Paul N Zivich , Alexander Breskin

Active learning in computer experiments aims at allocating resources in an intelligent manner based on the already observed data to satisfy certain objectives such as emulating or optimizing a computationally expensive function. There are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-24 Difan Song , V. Roshan Joseph

Confounding bias and selection bias bring two significant challenges to the validity of conclusions drawn from applied causal inference. The latter can stem from informative missingness, such as in cases of attrition. We introduce the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Johan de Aguas , Johan Pensar , Tomás Varnet Pérez , Guido Biele

We study how to learn treatment policies from multimodal electronic health records (EHRs) that consist of tabular data and clinical text. These policies can help physicians make better treatment decisions and allocate healthcare resources…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Henri Arno , Thomas Demeester

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are extensively utilized in various scientific disciplines, including epidemiology, ecology, and economics, with retrospective case-control studies being specific examples of such designs. Additionally, if…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Min Zeng , Zeyang Jia , Zijian Sui , Jinfeng Xu , Hong Zhang

Matching and weighting methods for observational studies involve the choice of an estimand, the causal effect with reference to a specific target population. Commonly used estimands include the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT),…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-12 Noah Greifer , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Maresa Schröder , Konstantin Hess , Niki Kilbertus , Stefan Feuerriegel

We study Federated Causal Inference, an approach to estimate treatment effects from decentralized data across centers. We compare three classes of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimators derived from the Plug-in G-Formula, ranging from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Rémi Khellaf , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse

Causal representation learning in the anti-causal setting (labels cause features rather than the reverse) presents unique challenges requiring specialized approaches. We propose Anti-Causal Invariant Abstractions (ACIA), a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Arman Behnam , Binghui Wang

Estimation of causal effects is the core objective of many scientific disciplines. However, it remains a challenging task, especially when the effects are estimated from observational data. Recently, several promising machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-02 Niki Kiriakidou , Christos Diou

Establishing cause-effect relationships from observational data often relies on untestable assumptions. It is crucial to know whether, and to what extent, the conclusions drawn from non-experimental studies are robust to potential…

It is known that from purely observational data, a causal DAG is identifiable only up to its Markov equivalence class, and for many ground truth DAGs, the direction of a large portion of the edges will be remained unidentified. The golden…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-15 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian