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This paper proposes a novel non-parametric multidimensional convex regression estimator which is designed to be robust to adversarial perturbations in the empirical measure. We minimize over convex functions the maximum (over Wasserstein…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Jose Blanchet , Peter W. Glynn , Jun Yan , Zhengqing Zhou

Using only retrospective data, we study the problem of predicting treatment effects for the same treatment/policy implemented in a different location or time period. We propose a distributionally robust estimator that minimizes the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-29 Ruonan Xu , Xiye Yang

We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-04 Taras Bodnar , Mathias Lindholm , Vilhelm Niklasson , Erik Thorsén

Several variants of reweighted risk functionals, such as focal loss, inverse focal loss, and the Area Under the Risk Coverage Curve (AURC), have been proposed for improving model calibration; yet their theoretical connections to calibration…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Han Zhou , Sebastian G. Gruber , Teodora Popordanoska , Matthew B. Blaschko

In this paper, we study the problem of estimating uniformly well the mean values of several distributions given a finite budget of samples. If the variance of the distributions were known, one could design an optimal sampling strategy by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-07-17 Alexandra Carpentier , Alessandro Lazaric , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Rémi Munos , Peter Auer , András Antos

We present the first minimax risk bounds for estimators of the spectral measure in multivariate linear factor models, where observations are linear combinations of regularly varying latent factors. Non-asymptotic convergence rates are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-12 Xuhui Zhang , Jose Blanchet , Youssef Marzouk , Viet Anh Nguyen , Sven Wang

We propose a distributionally robust index tracking model with the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) penalty. The model combines the idea of distributionally robust optimization for data uncertainty and the CVaR penalty to avoid large…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-12 Ruyu Wang , Yaozhong Hu , Chao Zhang

We endeavour to estimate numerous multi-dimensional means of various probability distributions on a common space based on independent samples. Our approach involves forming estimators through convex combinations of empirical means derived…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Gilles Blanchard , Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Hannah Marienwald

Conventional stochastic control methods have several limitations. They focus on optimizing the average performance and, in some cases, performance variability; however, their problem settings still require an explicit specification of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Yuma Shida , Yuji Ito

The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-09 Dhruva Kartik , Neeraj Sood , Urbashi Mitra , Tara Javidi

Predicting the outcomes of quantum measurements is a cornerstone of quantum information theory and a key resource for quantum technologies. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework for quantifying the predictability of measurements on a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-28 Dennis I. Martínez-Moreno , Miguel Castillo-Celeita , Diego G. Bussandri

We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-20 A. V. Lokhov , F. V. Tkachov

We consider distributionally robust optimization problems where the uncertainty is modeled via a structured Wasserstein ambiguity set. Specifically, the ambiguity is restricted to product measures $P^{\otimes N}$, where $P$ lies within a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Andrey Kharitenko , Marta Fochesato , Anastasios Tsiamis , Niklas Schmid , John Lygeros

In this work, we study how to ensure probabilistic safety for nonlinear systems under distributional ambiguity. Our approach builds on a backup-based safety filtering framework that switches between a high-performance nominal policy and a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Daniel M. Cherenson , Haejoon Lee , Taekyung Kim , Dimitra Panagou

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Zakaria Mhammedi , Benjamin Guedj , Robert C. Williamson

This paper introduces a framework for Chance-Constrained Optimization with Complex Variables, addressing complex linear programming for both individual and joint probabilistic constraints in the complex domain. We first analyze the 3CP…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Raneem Madani , Abdel Lisser , Zeno Toffano

The Wasserstein distance is an attractive tool for data analysis but statistical inference is hindered by the lack of distributional limits. To overcome this obstacle, for probability measures supported on finitely many points, we derive…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-27 Max Sommerfeld , Axel Munk

The Wasserstein distance is a distance between two probability distributions and has recently gained increasing popularity in statistics and machine learning, owing to its attractive properties. One important approach to extending this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-14 Ryo Okano , Masaaki Imaizumi

We consider the problems of estimation and optimization of two popular convex risk measures: utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) and Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk. We extend these risk measures to cover possibly unbounded random…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Sumedh Gupte , Prashanth L. A. , Sanjay P. Bhat

In this paper, we provide extended convolution bounds for the Fr\'{e}chet problem and discuss related implications in quantitative risk management. First, we establish a new form of inequality for the Range-Value-at-Risk (RVaR). Based on…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-01 Peng Liu , Yang Liu , Houhan Teng