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This paper is a work in progress. We are looking for collaborators to provide us financial datasets in Equity/Futures market to conduct more bench-marking studies. The authors have papers employing similar methods applied on the Numerai…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 Thomas Wong , Mauricio Barahona

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-11 Alex Tank , Emily B. Fox , Ali Shojaie

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Qitai Tan , Yiyun Chen , Mo Li , Ruiwen Gu , Yilin Su , Xiao-Ping Zhang

In this work, we propose a novel framework for density forecast combination by constructing time-varying weights based on time series features, which is called Feature-based Bayesian Forecasting Model Averaging (FEBAMA). Our framework…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-15 Li Li , Yanfei Kang , Feng Li

While recent advancements in foundation models have significantly impacted machine learning, rigorous tests on the performance of time series foundation models (TSFMs) remain largely underexplored. This paper presents an empirical study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Syamantak Datta Gupta

We introduce supervised feature ranking and feature subset selection algorithms for multivariate time series (MTS) classification. Unlike most existing supervised/unsupervised feature selection algorithms for MTS our techniques do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-04 Shuchu Han , Alexandru Niculescu-Mizil

Randomized Uphill Climbing is a lightweight, stochastic search heuristic that has delivered state of the art equity alpha factors for quantitative hedge funds. I propose to generalize RUC into a model agnostic feature optimization framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Nguyen Van Thanh

By treating intervals as inseparable sets, this paper proposes sparse machine learning regressions for high-dimensional interval-valued time series. With LASSO or adaptive LASSO techniques, we develop a penalized minimum distance…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-15 Haowen Bao , Yongmiao Hong , Yuying Sun , Shouyang Wang

Matrix factorization is a powerful data analysis tool. It has been used in multivariate time series analysis, leading to the decomposition of the series in a small set of latent factors. However, little is known on the statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Pierre Alquier , Nicolas Marie

Many recently introduced enhanced sampling techniques are based on biasing coarse descriptors (collective variables) of a molecular system on the fly. Sometimes the calculation of such collective variables is expensive and becomes a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-09-01 Marco Jacopo Ferrarotti , Sandro Bottaro , Andrea Pérez-Villa , Giovanni Bussi

Time series modelling is essential for solving tasks such as predictive maintenance, quality control and optimisation. Deep learning is widely used for solving such problems. When managing complex manufacturing process with neural networks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Alexey Kurochkin

Satellite imagery and remote sensing provide explanatory variables at relatively high resolutions for modeling geospatial phenomena, yet regional summaries are often desirable for analysis and actionable insight. In this paper, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-15 Sam Kriegman , Marcin Szubert , Josh C. Bongard , Christian Skalka

Multivariate time series forecasting is widely applied in fields such as transportation, energy, and finance. However, the data commonly suffers from issues of multi-scale characteristics, weak correlations, and noise interference, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Xiang Ao

We introduce a novel framework to financial time series forecasting that leverages causality-inspired models to balance the trade-off between invariance to distributional changes and minimization of prediction errors. To the best of our…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-20 Daniel Cunha Oliveira , Yutong Lu , Xi Lin , Mihai Cucuringu , Andre Fujita

In this paper, we introduce Masked Multi-Step Multivariate Forecasting (MMMF), a novel and general self-supervised learning framework for time series forecasting with known future information. In many real-world forecasting scenarios, some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Yiwei Fu , Honggang Wang , Nurali Virani

Large collections of time series data are often organized into hierarchies with different levels of aggregation; examples include product and geographical groupings. Probabilistic coherent forecasting is tasked to produce forecasts…

Given (small amounts of) time-series' data from a high-dimensional, fine-grained, multiscale dynamical system, we propose a generative framework for learning an effective, lower-dimensional, coarse-grained dynamical model that is predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-18 Sebastian Kaltenbach , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

Causal inference is a fundamental research topic for discovering the cause-effect relationships in many disciplines. However, not all algorithms are equally well-suited for a given dataset. For instance, some approaches may only be able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Zhipeng Ma , Marco Kemmerling , Daniel Buschmann , Chrismarie Enslin , Daniel Lütticke , Robert H. Schmitt

The multivariate time series forecasting has attracted more and more attention because of its vital role in different fields in the real world, such as finance, traffic, and weather. In recent years, many research efforts have been proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-15 Wentao Xu , Weiqing Liu , Jiang Bian , Jian Yin , Tie-Yan Liu

We tackle the challenge of feature embedding for the purposes of improving the click-through rate prediction process. We select three models: logistic regression, factorization machines and deep factorization machines, as our baselines and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Samo Pahor , Davorin Kopič , Jure Demšar