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This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

The field of distribution-free predictive inference provides tools for provably valid prediction without any assumptions on the distribution of the data, which can be paired with any regression algorithm to provide accurate and reliable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-19 Michael Bian , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Boxuan Zhang , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction methods provide statistically rigorous marginal coverage guarantees for machine learning models, but such guarantees fail to account for algorithmic biases, thereby undermining fairness and trust. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Senrong Xu , Yanke Zhou , Yuhao Tan , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-26 Mahmoud Hegazy , Liviu Aolaritei , Michael I. Jordan , Aymeric Dieuleveut

Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Siddhaarth Sarkar , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

We propose a new method called localized conformal prediction, where we can perform conformal inference using only a local region around a new test sample to construct its confidence interval. Localized conformal inference is a natural…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-08 Leying Guan

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Wenyu Chen , Kelli-Jean Chun , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated prediction sets with precise coverage guarantees for any classification model. However, its reliance…

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Dennis Ulmer , André F. T. Martins

This book is about conformal prediction and related inferential techniques that build on permutation tests and exchangeability. These techniques are useful in a diverse array of tasks, including hypothesis testing and providing uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-09 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Rina Foygel Barber , Stephen Bates

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

We present an interactive machine translation (MT) system designed for users who are not proficient in the target language. It aims to improve trustworthiness and explainability by identifying potentially mistranslated words and allowing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Kenneth J. Sible , David Chiang

We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-04 John C. Duchi