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Despite their enormous predictive power, machine learning models are often unsuitable for applications in regulated industries such as finance, due to their limited capacity to provide explanations. While model-agnostic frameworks such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-03 Joshua S. Harvey , Guanchao Feng , Sai Anusha Meesala , Tina Zhao , Dhagash Mehta

Model interpretability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic decisions have on humans. Counterfactual explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Ana Lucic , Harrie Oosterhuis , Hinda Haned , Maarten de Rijke

In this paper, we address the challenge of performing counterfactual inference with observational data via Bayesian nonparametric regression adjustment, with a focus on high-dimensional settings featuring multiple actions and multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Counterfactual explanations are one of the prominent eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, and suggest changes to input data that could alter predictions, leading to more favourable outcomes. Existing counterfactual methods…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Andrei Buliga , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Marco Montali , Massimiliano Ronzani

We propose a fast, model agnostic method for finding interpretable counterfactual explanations of classifier predictions by using class prototypes. We show that class prototypes, obtained using either an encoder or through class specific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-19 Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise

Transparency is an essential requirement of machine learning based decision making systems that are deployed in real world. Often, transparency of a given system is achieved by providing explanations of the behavior and predictions of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-18 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

The accuracy and understandability of bank failure prediction models are crucial. While interpretable models like logistic regression are favored for their explainability, complex models such as random forest, support vector machines, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Seyma Gunonu , Gizem Altun , Mustafa Cavus

The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, the practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Alexandre Drouin , Étienne Marcotte , Nicolas Chapados

Counterfactuals, serving as one of the emerging type of model interpretations, have recently received attention from both researchers and practitioners. Counterfactual explanations formalize the exploration of ``what-if'' scenarios, and are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Fan Yang , Sahan Suresh Alva , Jiahao Chen , Xia Hu

Counterfactual explanations suggest what should be different in the input instance to change the outcome of an AI system. When dealing with counterfactual explanations in the field of Predictive Process Monitoring, however, control flow…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Andrei Buliga , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Ivan Donadello , Fabrizio Maria Maggi

Transformer-based models have become state-of-the-art tools in various machine learning tasks, including time series classification, yet their complexity makes understanding their internal decision-making challenging. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Matīss Kalnāre , Sofoklis Kitharidis , Thomas Bäck , Niki van Stein

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

Machine learning models that operate on graph-structured data, such as molecular graphs or social networks, often make accurate predictions but offer little insight into why certain predictions are made. Counterfactual explanations address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 David Bechtoldt , Sidney Bender

Interpretable machine learning seeks to understand the reasoning process of complex black-box systems that are long notorious for lack of explainability. One flourishing approach is through counterfactual explanations, which provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Vy Vo , Trung Le , Van Nguyen , He Zhao , Edwin Bonilla , Gholamreza Haffari , Dinh Phung

We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Alfredo Lopez , Florian Sobieczky

While recent years have witnessed the emergence of various explainable methods in machine learning, to what degree the explanations really represent the reasoning process behind the model prediction -- namely, the faithfulness of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-07 Yingqiang Ge , Shuchang Liu , Zelong Li , Shuyuan Xu , Shijie Geng , Yunqi Li , Juntao Tan , Fei Sun , Yongfeng Zhang

In recent years, various machine and deep learning architectures have been successfully introduced to the field of predictive process analytics. Nevertheless, the inherent opacity of these algorithms poses a significant challenge for human…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Alexander Stevens , Chun Ouyang , Johannes De Smedt , Catarina Moreira

Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Ramaravind Kommiya Mothilal , Amit Sharma , Chenhao Tan

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Qiang Huang , Chuizheng Meng , Defu Cao , Biwei Huang , Yi Chang , Yan Liu