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This paper makes the case for using Shapley value to quantify the importance of random input variables to a function. Alternatives based on the ANOVA decomposition can run into conceptual and computational problems when the input variables…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-22 Art B. Owen , Clémentine Prieur

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

A high-velocity paradigm shift towards Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has emerged in recent years. Highly complex Machine Learning (ML) models have flourished in many tasks of intelligence, and the questions have started to shift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Jacob Dineen , Don Kridel , Daniel Dolk , David Castillo

In order to ensure the reliability of the explanations of machine learning models, it is crucial to establish their advantages and limits and in which case each of these methods outperform. However, the current understanding of when and how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Célia Wafa Ayad , Thomas Bonnier , Benjamin Bosch , Sonali Parbhoo , Jesse Read

Shapley effects are attracting increasing attention as sensitivity measures. When the value function is the conditional variance, they account for the individual and higher order effects of a model input. They are also well defined under…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-13 Elmar Plischke , Giovanni Rabitti , Emanuele Borgonovo

Many applications of machine learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, one data-driven approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Clara Fannjiang , Stephen Bates , Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Jennifer Listgarten , Michael I. Jordan

Machine learning models that offer excellent predictive performance often lack the interpretability necessary to support integrated human machine decision-making. In clinical medicine and other high-risk settings, domain experts may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-19 Zach Wood-Doughty , Isabel Cachola , Mark Dredze

Cohort Shapley value is a model-free method of variable importance grounded in game theory that does not use any unobserved and potentially impossible feature combinations. We use it to evaluate algorithmic fairness, using the well known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Masayoshi Mase , Art B. Owen , Benjamin B. Seiler

Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-11 Jay Heo , Hae Beom Lee , Saehoon Kim , Juho Lee , Kwang Joon Kim , Eunho Yang , Sung Ju Hwang

The Shapley value has become popular in the Explainable AI (XAI) literature, thanks, to a large extent, to a solid theoretical foundation, including four "favourable and fair" axioms for attribution in transferable utility games. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Daniel Fryer , Inga Strümke , Hien Nguyen

Quantifying the uncertainty of supervised learning models plays an important role in making more reliable predictions. Epistemic uncertainty, which usually is due to insufficient knowledge about the model, can be reduced by collecting more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-27 Xinlei Zhou , Han Liu , Farhad Pourpanah , Tieyong Zeng , Xizhao Wang

Uncertainty quantification is at the core of the reliability and robustness of machine learning. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to dissect the uncertainty, especially the \textit{epistemic} component, in deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

The use of algorithm-agnostic approaches is an emerging area of research for explaining the contribution of individual features towards the predicted outcome. Whilst there is a focus on explaining the prediction itself, a little has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-07 Guilherme Dean Pelegrina , Sajid Siraj

Algorithmic decisions in critical domains such as hiring, college admissions, and lending are often based on rankings. Given the impact of these decisions on individuals, organizations, and population groups, it is essential to understand…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Venetia Pliatsika , Joao Fonseca , Kateryna Akhynko , Ivan Shevchenko , Julia Stoyanovich

The ability to understand and trust the fairness of model predictions, particularly when considering the outcomes of unprivileged groups, is critical to the deployment and adoption of machine learning systems. SHAP values provide a unified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-29 James M. Hickey , Pietro G. Di Stefano , Vlasios Vasileiou

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Freddie Bickford Smith , Jannik Kossen , Eleanor Trollope , Mark van der Wilk , Adam Foster , Tom Rainforth

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Hugh Chen , Joseph D. Janizek , Scott Lundberg , Su-In Lee

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Yangyi Li , Chenxu Zhao , Mengdi Huai

In this paper we argue that, to its detriment, transparency research overlooks many foundational concepts of artificial intelligence. As an illustrating example we focus on uncertainty quantification in the context of counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Kacper Sokol , Santo M. A. R. Thies , Eyke Hüllermeier