Related papers: Gibbs-Based Information Criteria and the Over-Para…
Deep neural networks can achieve remarkable generalization performances while interpolating the training data perfectly. Rather than the U-curve emblematic of the bias-variance trade-off, their test error often follows a "double descent" -…
Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. In this work, we revisit the derivation of estimators for…
We derive an information criterion to select a parametric model of complete-data distribution when only incomplete or partially observed data is available. Compared with AIC, our new criterion has an additional penalty term for missing…
Information criteria, such as Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion are often applied in model selection. However, their asymptotic behaviors for selecting geostatistical regression models have not been well…
Unmeasured covariates constitute one of the important problems in causal inference. Even if there are some unmeasured covariates, some instrumental variable methods such as a two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) estimator, or a…
Finite mixture models are ubiquitous in modern statistical modeling, and a recurring practical issue is choosing the model order. In \citet[Sankhy\=a Series A, \textbf62, pp. 49--66]{keribin2000consistent}, the Bayesian information…
The Cox proportional hazards model, commonly used in clinical trials, assumes proportional hazards. However, it does not hold when, for example, there is a delayed onset of the treatment effect. In such a situation, an acute change in the…
Non-concave penalized maximum likelihood methods, such as the Bridge, the SCAD, and the MCP, are widely used because they not only do parameter estimation and variable selection simultaneously but also have a high efficiency as compared to…
In segmented regression, when the regression function is continuous at the change-points that are the boundaries of the segments, it is also called joinpoint regression, and the analysis package developed by \cite{KimFFM00} has become a…
We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a biascorrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on…
Model selection based on classical information criteria, such as BIC, is generally computationally demanding, but its properties are well studied. On the other hand, model selection based on parameter shrinkage by $\ell_1$-type penalties is…
Conventional statistical wisdom established a well-understood relationship between model complexity and prediction error, typically presented as a U-shaped curve reflecting a transition between under- and overfitting regimes. However,…
The theory of bias-variance used to serve as a guide for model selection when applying Machine Learning algorithms. However, modern practice has shown success with over-parameterized models that were expected to overfit but did not. This…
We extend the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), an asymptotic approximation for the marginal likelihood, to Bayesian networks with hidden variables. This approximation can be used to select models given large samples of data. The…
It has been observed by Belkin et al.\ that over-parametrized neural networks exhibit a `double descent' phenomenon. That is, as the model complexity (as reflected in the number of features) increases, the test error initially decreases,…
We propose a new parameter-adaptive uncertainty-penalized Bayesian information criterion (UBIC) to prioritize the parsimonious partial differential equation (PDE) that sufficiently governs noisy spatial-temporal observed data with few…
The bias-variance trade-off is a central concept in supervised learning. In classical statistics, increasing the complexity of a model (e.g., number of parameters) reduces bias but also increases variance. Until recently, it was commonly…
We consider a sparse linear regression model, when the number of available predictors, $p$, is much larger than the sample size, $n$, and the number of non-zero coefficients, $p_0$, is small. To choose the regression model in this…
We provide an information-theoretic analysis of the generalization ability of Gibbs-based transfer learning algorithms by focusing on two popular transfer learning approaches, $\alpha$-weighted-ERM and two-stage-ERM. Our key result is an…
A bias correction to Akaike's information criterion (AIC) is derived for seemingly unrelated regressions models. The correction is of particular use when the sample size is not much larger than the number of fitted parameters. A…