Related papers: Linking Frequentist and Bayesian Change-Point Meth…

We introduce a new approach for decoupling trends (drift) and changepoints (shifts) in time series. Our locally adaptive model-based approach for robustly decoupling combines Bayesian trend filtering and machine learning based…

This paper proposes a new minimum description length procedure to detect multiple changepoints in time series data when some times are a priori thought more likely to be changepoints. This scenario arises with temperature time series…

Change-point detection (CPD) aims to locate abrupt transitions in the generative model of a sequence of observations. When Bayesian methods are considered, the standard practice is to infer the posterior distribution of the change-point…

In multiple change-point problems, different data segments often follow different distributions, for which the changes may occur in the mean, scale or the entire distribution from one segment to another. Without the need to know the number…

We study the problem of detecting change points (CPs) that are characterized by a subset of dimensions in a multi-dimensional sequence. A method for detecting those CPs can be formulated as a two-stage method: one for selecting relevant…

In previous work we developed a method of learning Bayesian Network models from raw data. This method relies on the well known minimal description length (MDL) principle. The MDL principle is particularly well suited to this task as it…

This article considers the problem of modeling a class of nonstationary count time series using multiple change-points generalized integer-valued autoregressive (MCP-GINAR) processes. The minimum description length principle (MDL) is…

This is an up-to-date introduction to and overview of the Minimum Description Length (MDL) Principle, a theory of inductive inference that can be applied to general problems in statistics, machine learning and pattern recognition. While MDL…

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…

We present the first theoretical framework that connects predictive coding (PC), a biologically inspired local learning rule, with the minimum description length (MDL) principle in deep networks. We prove that layerwise PC performs…

In modern business modeling and analytics, data monitoring plays a critical role. Nowadays, sophisticated models often rely on hundreds or even thousands of input variables. Over time, structural changes such as abrupt level shifts or trend…

Modelling and understanding directional gene networks is a major challenge in biology as they play an important role in the architecture and function of genetic systems. Copula Directional Dependence (CDD) can measure the directed…

In many modern applications, large-scale sensor networks are used to perform statistical inference tasks. In this paper, we propose Bayesian methods for multiple change-point detection using a sensor network in which a fusion center (FC)…

A change point detection (CPD) framework assisted by a predictive machine learning model called "Predict and Compare" is introduced and characterised in relation to other state-of-the-art online CPD routines which it outperforms in terms of…

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks and causal relationships from observations is a common goal in several areas of science and technology. We show that the prequential minimum description length principle (MDL) can be used to…

Identifying change points (CPs) in a time series is crucial to guide better decision making across various fields like finance and healthcare and facilitating timely responses to potential risks or opportunities. Existing Change Point…

This article addresses the problem of efficient Bayesian inference in dynamic systems using particle methods and makes a number of contributions. First, we develop a correlated pseudo-marginal (CPM) approach for Bayesian inference in state…

Within a Bayesian retrospective framework, we present a way of examining the distribution of \cps through a novel set estimator. For a given level, $\alpha$, we aim at smallest sets that cover all \cps with a probability of at least…

We present a Bayesian method for multivariate changepoint detection that allows for simultaneous inference on the location of a changepoint and the coefficients of a logistic regression model for distinguishing pre-changepoint data from…

Bayesian model averaging, model selection and its approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates og convergence than other methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the…