Related papers: Condorcet Markets
Modern mainstream financial theory is underpinned by the efficient market hypothesis, which posits the rapid incorporation of relevant information into asset pricing. Limited prior studies in the operational research literature have…
Mechanism design is concerned with settings where a policymaker (or social planner) faces the problem of aggregating the announced preferences of multiple agents into a collective (or social), system-wide decision. One of the most important…
Weighted Updating generalizes Bayesian updating, allowing for biased beliefs by weighting the likelihood function and prior distribution with positive real exponents. I provide a rigorous foundation for the model by showing that…
The auction theory literature has so far focused mostly on the design of mechanisms that takes the revenue or the efficiency as a yardstick. However, scenarios where the {\it capacity}, which we define as \textit{``the number of bidders the…
We study the utilitarian distortion of social choice mechanisms under the recently proposed learning-augmented framework where some (possibly unreliable) predicted information about the preferences of the agents is given as input. In…
Convergence (virtual) bidding is an important part of two-settlement electric power markets as it can effectively reduce discrepancies between the day-ahead and real-time markets. Consequently, there is extensive research into the bidding…
The information bottleneck (IB) method seeks a compressed representation of data that preserves information relevant to a target variable for prediction while discarding irrelevant information from the original data. In its classical…
Efficiently accommodating uncertain renewable resources in wholesale electricity markets is among the foremost priorities of market regulators in the US, UK and EU nations. However, existing deterministic market designs fail to internalize…
Post Modigliani and Miller (1958), the concept of usage of arbitrage created a permanent mark on the discourses of financial framework. The arbitrage process is largely based on information dissemination amongst the stakeholders operating…
Traders in a market typically have widely different, private information on the return of an asset. The equilibrium price of the asset may reflect this information more accurately if the number of traders is large enough compared to the…
We address the fundamental problem of selection under uncertainty by modeling it from the perspective of Bayesian persuasion. In our model, a decision maker with imperfect information always selects the option with the highest expected…
We study the voting game where agents' preferences are endogenously decided by the information they receive, and they can collaborate in a group. We show that strategic voting behaviors have a positive impact on leading to the ``correct''…
Beliefs are important determinants of an individual's choices and economic outcomes, so understanding how they comove and differ across individuals is of considerable interest. Researchers often rely on surveys that report individual…
In modern recommendation systems, unbiased learning-to-rank (LTR) is crucial for prioritizing items from biased implicit user feedback, such as click data. Several techniques, such as Inverse Propensity Weighting (IPW), have been proposed…
A new class of general exponential ranking models is introduced which we label angle-based models for ranking data. A consensus score vector is assumed, which assigns scores to a set of items, where the scores reflect a consensus view of…
Which level of voting costs is optimal in a democracy? This paper argues that intermediate voting costs - what we term a "Midcost democracy" - should be avoided, as they fail to ensure that electoral outcomes reflect the preferences of the…
Here we present \texttt{electoral\_sim}, an open-source Python framework for simulating and comparing electoral systems across diverse voter preference distributions. The framework represents voters and candidates as points in a…
In this article the issues are discussed with the Bayesian approach, least-square fits, and most-likely fits. Trying to counter these issues, a method, based on weighted confidence, is proposed for estimating probabilities and other…
Even though it is unrealistic to expect citizens to pinpoint the policy implementation that they prefer from the set of alternatives, it is still possible to infer such information through an exercise of ranking the importance of policy…
We discuss a weighted estimation of correlation and covariance matrices from historical financial data. To this end, we introduce a weighting scheme that accounts for similarity of previous market conditions to the present one. The…