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Modern regression analyses are often undermined by covariate measurement error, misspecification of the regression model, and misspecification of the measurement error distribution. We present, to the best of our knowledge, the first…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Mengqi Chen , Charita Dellaporta , Thomas B. Berrett , Theodoros Damoulas

I introduce a general, Bayesian method for modelling univariate time series data assumed to be drawn from a continuous, stochastic process. The method accommodates arbitrary temporal sampling, and takes into account measurement…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2012-10-24 C. A. L. Bailer-Jones

Probabilistic time series forecasting predicts the conditional probability distributions of the time series at a future time given past realizations. Such techniques are critical in risk-based decision-making and planning under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Xinyi Wang , Meijen Lee , Qing Zhao , Lang Tong

Favaro, Lijoi, and Pruenster (2012, Biometrics, 68, 1188--1196) derive a novel Bayesian nonparametric estimator of the probability of detecting at the $(n+m+1)$th observation a species already observed with any given frequency in an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-04 Annalisa Cerquetti

We propose a Bayesian semiparametric approach for registration of multiple point processes. Our approach entails modelling the mean measures of the phase-varying point processes with a Bernstein-Dirichlet prior, which induces a prior on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-14 Bastian Galasso , Yoav Zemel , Miguel de Carvalho

This paper deals with the estimation of the unknown distribution of hidden random variables from the observation of pairwise comparisons between these variables. This problem is inspired by recent developments on Bradley-Terry models in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-27 Sylvain Le Corff , Matthieu Lerasle , Elodie Vernet

Although continuous density estimation has received abundant attention in the Bayesian nonparametrics literature, there is limited theory on multivariate mixed scale density estimation. In this note, we consider a general framework to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-26 Antonio Canale , David B. Dunson

Parameter inference for linear and non-Gaussian state space models is challenging because the likelihood function contains an intractable integral over the latent state variables. While Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide exact…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-22 Bao Anh Vu , David Gunawan , Andrew Zammit-Mangion

In this article, we investigate posterior convergence of nonparametric binary and Poisson regression under possible model misspecification, assuming general stochastic process prior with appropriate properties. Our model setup and objective…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

This invited paper proposes and discusses several Bayesian attempts at nonparametric and semiparametric density estimation. The main categories of these ideas are as follows: 1) Build a nonparametric prior around a given parametric model.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Nils Lid Hjort

In this paper, we investigate time-varying nonlinear time series regression for a broad class of locally stationary time series. First, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions that achieve uniform…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 David T. Frazier , Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , Bonsoo Koo

Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications, exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and probabilistically coherent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Edoardo M. Airoldi , Thiago Costa , Federico Bassetti , Fabrizio Leisen , Michele Guindani

This article discusses a partially adapted particle filter for estimating the likelihood of a nonlinear structural econometric state space models whose state transition density cannot be expressed in closed form. The filter generates the…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-05 Jamie Hall , Michael K. Pitt , Robert Kohn

We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions and Bayes estimators based on observations which are required to be neither independent nor identically distributed. We give general results on the rate of convergence of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Subhashis Ghosal , Aad van der Vaart

Bayesian synthetic likelihood is a widely used approach for conducting Bayesian analysis in complex models where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible but simulation from the assumed model is tractable. We analyze the behaviour of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-17 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Nott

A nonparametric procedure to estimate the conditional probability that a nonstationary geostatistical process exceeds a certain threshold value is proposed. The method consists of a bootstrap algorithm that combines conditional simulation…

In the present paper, we derive lower bounds for the risk of the nonparametric empirical Bayes estimators. In order to attain the optimal convergence rate, we propose generalization of the linear empirical Bayes estimation method which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-12 Rida Benhaddou , Marianna Pensky

The conditional independence assumption has recently appeared in a growing body of literature on the estimation of multivariate mixtures. We consider here conditionally independent multivariate mixtures of power series distributions with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-09 Fadoua Balabdaoui , Harald Besdziek , Yong Wang

We present an alternative approach to the Bayesian nonparametric analysis of conditional species richness under two-parameter Poisson Dirichlet priors. We rely on a known characterization by deletion of classes property and on results for…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-02-03 Annalisa Cerquetti