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We propose Echo State Networks (ESNs) to predict the statistics of extreme events in a turbulent flow. We train the ESNs on small datasets that lack information about the extreme events. We asses whether the networks are able to extrapolate…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-04-13 Alberto Racca , Luca Magri

Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-05-16 Daniel Dylewsky , Sonia Kéfi , Madhur Anand , Chris T. Bauch

Approximate Bayesian Computation is widely used in systems biology for inferring parameters in stochastic gene regulatory network models. Its performance hinges critically on the ability to summarize high-dimensional system responses such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-13 Mattias Åkesson , Prashant Singh , Fredrik Wrede , Andreas Hellander

This research introduces a novel methodology for optimizing Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) by synergistically integrating them with traditional machine learning algorithms such as Random Forests (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), and Support…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Peiwen Tan

Bayesian analysis of state-space models includes computing the posterior distribution of the system's parameters as well as filtering, smoothing, and predicting the system's latent states. When the latent states wander around $\mathbb{R}^n$…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-24 Jesse Windle , Carlos M. Carvalho

The prediction of the temporal dynamics of chaotic systems is challenging because infinitesimal perturbations grow exponentially. The analysis of the dynamics of infinitesimal perturbations is the subject of stability analysis. In stability…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-03-31 Georgios Margazoglou , Luca Magri

How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-15 Marco Fraccaro , Søren Kaae Sønderby , Ulrich Paquet , Ole Winther

The EM-algorithm is a general procedure to get maximum likelihood estimates if part of the observations on the variables of a network are missing. In this paper a stochastic version of the algorithm is adapted to probabilistic neural…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Gerhard Paass

In this work, a three-dimensional multicomponent reaction-diffusion model has been developed, combining excitable-system dynamics with diffusion processes and sharing conceptual features with the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. Designed to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Anastasia-Maria Leventi-Peetz , Jörg-Volker Peetz , Kai Weber , Nikolaos Zacharis

We propose a novel algorithm for performing federated learning with Echo State Networks (ESNs) in a client-server scenario. In particular, our proposal focuses on the adaptation of reservoirs by combining Intrinsic Plasticity with Federated…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Valerio De Caro , Claudio Gallicchio , Davide Bacciu

Binaural speech enhancement (BSE) aims to jointly improve the speech quality and intelligibility of noisy signals received by hearing devices and preserve the spatial cues of the target for natural listening. Existing methods often suffer…

Sound · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Jingyuan Wang , Jie Zhang , Shihao Chen , Miao Sun

Probabilistic cellular automata describe the dynamics of classical spin models, which, for sufficiently small temperature $T$, can serve as classical memory capable of storing information even in the presence of nonzero external magnetic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-30 Annie Ray , Raymond Laflamme , Aleksander Kubica

Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-24 Bohan Wu , Eli N. Weinstein , David M. Blei

In this work, we study the social learning problem, in which agents of a networked system collaborate to detect the state of the nature based on their private signals. A novel distributed graphical evolutionary game theoretic learning…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-05-24 Xuanyu Cao , K. J. Ray Liu

Integrating measurements and historical data can enhance control systems through learning-based techniques, but ensuring performance and safety is challenging. Robust model predictive control strategies, like stochastic model predictive…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-28 J. Pohlodek , H. Alsmeier , B. Morabito , C. Schlauch , A. Savchenko , R. Findeisen

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Ben Swallow , David A. Rand , Giorgos Minas

How to model distribution of sequential data, including but not limited to speech and human motions, is an important ongoing research problem. It has been demonstrated that model capacity can be significantly enhanced by introducing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-19 Guokun Lai , Bohan Li , Guoqing Zheng , Yiming Yang

Neural networks have proven to be remarkably successful for a wide range of complicated tasks, from image recognition and object detection to speech recognition and machine translation. One of their successes is the skill in prediction of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-15 Anton Pershin , Cedric Beaume , Kuan Li , Steven M. Tobias

Echo state network (ESN) is viewed as a temporal non-orthogonal expansion with pseudo-random parameters. Such expansions naturally give rise to regressors of various relevance to a teacher output. We illustrate that often only a certain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-07-03 Ján Dolinský , Kei Hirose , Sadanori Konishi

Unsupervised estimation of latent variable models is a fundamental problem central to numerous applications of machine learning and statistics. This work presents a principled approach for estimating broad classes of such models, including…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-05-27 Animashree Anandkumar , Daniel Hsu , Adel Javanmard , Sham M. Kakade
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