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Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model's confidence in its prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Shuang Ao , Stefan Rueger , Advaith Siddharthan

Reliable uncertainty calibration is essential for safely deploying deep neural networks in high-stakes applications. Deep neural networks are known to exhibit systematic overconfidence, especially under distribution shifts. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Achim Hekler , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Deep neural networks have been shown to be highly miscalibrated. often they tend to be overconfident in their predictions. It poses a significant challenge for safety-critical systems to utilise deep neural networks (DNNs), reliably. Many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Aditya Singh , Alessandro Bay , Biswa Sengupta , Andrea Mirabile

For users to trust model predictions, they need to understand model outputs, particularly their confidence - calibration aims to adjust (calibrate) models' confidence to match expected accuracy. We argue that the traditional calibration…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Chenglei Si , Chen Zhao , Sewon Min , Jordan Boyd-Graber

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Jeremy Nixon , Mike Dusenberry , Ghassen Jerfel , Timothy Nguyen , Jeremiah Liu , Linchuan Zhang , Dustin Tran

Although deep neural networks (DNNs) achieve high predictive accuracy, their confidence estimates are often unreliable, potentially compromising user trust in their decisions. This has motivated research on calibrated models, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Ramya Hebbalaguppe , Ajay Shastry , Soumya Suvra Ghosal , Chetan Arora

Confidence calibration - the process to calibrate the output probability distribution of neural networks - is essential for safety-critical applications of such networks. Recent works verify the link between mis-calibration and overfitting.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Daochang Liu , Changming Sun , Chang Xu

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Estimated uncertainty by approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks are prone to miscalibration, which leads to overconfident predictions in critical tasks that have a clear asymmetric cost or significant losses. Here, we extend the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Biraja Ghoshal , Allan Tucker

Although deep learning prediction models have been successful in the discrimination of different classes, they can often suffer from poor calibration across challenging domains including healthcare. Moreover, the long-tail distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Riqiang Gao , Thomas Li , Yucheng Tang , Zhoubing Xu , Michael Kammer , Sanja L. Antic , Kim Sandler , Fabien Moldonado , Thomas A. Lasko , Bennett Landman

Miscalibration - a mismatch between a model's confidence and its correctness - of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) makes their predictions hard to rely on. Ideally, we want networks to be accurate, calibrated and confident. We show that, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Jishnu Mukhoti , Viveka Kulharia , Amartya Sanyal , Stuart Golodetz , Philip H. S. Torr , Puneet K. Dokania

Confidence calibration of classification models is a technique to estimate the true posterior probability of the predicted class, which is critical for ensuring reliable decision-making in practical applications. Existing confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-19 Jinzong Dong , Zhaohui Jiang , Dong Pan , Haoyang Yu

In the field of medical image analysis, achieving high accuracy is not enough; ensuring well-calibrated predictions is also crucial. Confidence scores of a deep neural network play a pivotal role in explainability by providing insights into…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Abhishek Singh Sambyal , Usma Niyaz , Narayanan C. Krishnan , Deepti R. Bathula

While modern deep neural networks are performant perception modules, performance (accuracy) alone is insufficient, particularly for safety-critical robotic applications such as self-driving vehicles. Robot autonomy stacks also require these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Dhaivat Bhatt , Kaustubh Mani , Dishank Bansal , Krishna Murthy , Hanju Lee , Liam Paull

Despite being widely used, face recognition models suffer from bias: the probability of a false positive (incorrect face match) strongly depends on sensitive attributes such as the ethnicity of the face. As a result, these models can…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Tiago Salvador , Stephanie Cairns , Vikram Voleti , Noah Marshall , Adam Oberman

Modern convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are known to be overconfident in terms of their calibration on unseen input data. That is to say, they are more confident than they are accurate. This is undesirable if the probabilities predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Guoxuan Xia , Sangwon Ha , Tiago Azevedo , Partha Maji

Deep neural network (DNN) classifiers are often overconfident, producing miscalibrated class probabilities. In high-risk applications like healthcare, practitioners require $\textit{fully calibrated}$ probability predictions for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-09 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks can achieve super-human performance in a wide range of image classification tasks in the medical imaging domain. However, these works have primarily focused on classification accuracy,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Gongbo Liang , Yu Zhang , Xiaoqin Wang , Nathan Jacobs

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Fabian Küppers , Jan Kronenberger , Jonas Schneider , Anselm Haselhoff

In recent years, deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown competitive results in many fields. Despite this success, they often suffer from poor calibration, especially in safety-critical scenarios such as autonomous driving and healthcare,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-13 Jiani Ni , He Zhao , Yibo Yang , Dandan Guo
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