Related papers: Asymptotics of Bayesian Uncertainty Estimation in …
Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…
Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…
We study full Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional linear regression under sparsity constraints. The prior is a mixture of point masses at zero and continuous distributions. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, the…
In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a…
A variety of estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution, the approximating distribution for excesses over a high threshold, have been proposed, always assuming the underlying data to be independent. We recently…
This paper investigates the {\em nonasymptotic} properties of Bayes procedures for estimating an unknown distribution from $n$ i.i.d.\ observations. We assume that the prior is supported by a model $(\scr{S},h)$ (where $h$ denotes the…
We consider covariance parameter estimation for Gaussian processes with functional inputs. From an increasing-domain asymptotics perspective, we prove the asymptotic consistency and normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. We extend…
In this paper we propose a Bayesian answer to testing problems when the hypotheses are not well separated. The idea of the method is to study the posterior distribution of a discrepancy measure between the parameter and the model we want to…
We consider the problem of parameter estimation by the observations of deterministic signal in white gaussian noise. It is supposed that the signal has a singularity of cusp-type. The properties of the maximum likelihood and bayesian…
The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…
We study the problem of estimating the mode and maximum of an unknown regression function in the presence of noise. We adopt the Bayesian approach by using tensor-product B-splines and endowing the coefficients with Gaussian priors. In the…
We consider generalized Bayesian inference on stochastic processes and dynamical systems with potentially long-range dependency. Given a sequence of observations, a class of parametrized model processes with a prior distribution, and a loss…
A recent article on generalised linear mixed model asymptotics, Jiang et al. (2022), derived the rates of convergence for the asymptotic variances of maximum likelihood estimators. If $m$ denotes the number of groups and $n$ is the average…
In this paper, we consider the problem of parametric empirical Bayes estimation of an i.i.d. prior in high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression, with random design. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the variational Empirical Bayes…
In a smooth semi-parametric model, the marginal posterior distribution for a finite dimensional parameter of interest is expected to be asymptotically equivalent to the sampling distribution of any efficient point-estimator. The assertion…
The frequentist behavior of nonparametric Bayes estimates, more specifically, rates of contraction of the posterior distributions to shrinking $L^r$-norm neighborhoods, $1\le r\le\infty$, of the unknown parameter, are studied. A theorem for…
For a regression model, we consider the risk of the maximum likelihood estimator with respect to $\alpha$-divergence, which includes the special cases of Kullback-Leibler divergence, Hellinger distance and $\chi^2$ divergence. The…
In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the…
Variational inference is a general framework to obtain approximations to the posterior distribution in a Bayesian context. In essence, variational inference entails an optimization over a given family of probability distributions to choose…
Predictive mean matching imputation is popular for handling item nonresponse in survey sampling. In this article, we study the asymptotic properties of the predictive mean matching estimator of the population mean. For variance estimation,…