Related papers: A Calibrated Data-Driven Approach for Small Area E…

A common problem faced by statistical institutes is that data may be missing from collected data sets. The typical way to overcome this problem is to impute the missing data. The problem of imputing missing data is complicated by the fact…

In this paper we propose a flexible nested error regression small area model with high dimensional parameter that incorporates heterogeneity in regression coefficients and variance components. We develop a new robust small area specific…

Constant (naive) imputation is still widely used in practice as this is a first easy-to-use technique to deal with missing data. Yet, this simple method could be expected to induce a large bias for prediction purposes, as the imputed input…

In analyzing big data for finite population inference, it is critical to adjust for the selection bias in the big data. In this paper, we propose two methods of reducing the selection bias associated with the big data sample. The first…

Area-specific causal inference is important in many policy and survey applications, where the goal is to evaluate treatment effects for small geographic or demographic domains. Existing causal small area estimation methods, however,…

Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use…

Big data mining is well known to be an important task for data science, because it can provide useful observations and new knowledge hidden in given large datasets. Proximity-based data analysis is particularly utilized in many real-life…

Accurate quantification of uncertainty is crucial for real-world applications of machine learning. However, modern deep neural networks still produce unreliable predictive uncertainty, often yielding over-confident predictions. In this…

For small area estimation of area-level data, the Fay-Herriot model is extensively used as a model based method. In the Fay-Herriot model, it is conventionally assumed that the sampling variances are known whereas estimators of sampling…

It is now well known that neural networks can be wrong with high confidence in their predictions, leading to poor calibration. The most common post-hoc approach to compensate for this is to perform temperature scaling, which adjusts the…

We consider a small area estimation model under square-root transformation in the presence of functional measurement error. When measurement error is present, the Bayes predictor can no longer be used as it depends on the covariates even if…

Sampling biases in training data are a major source of algorithmic biases in machine learning systems. Although there are many methods that attempt to mitigate such algorithmic biases during training, the most direct and obvious way is…

Aggregate outcome variables collected through surveys and administrative records are often subject to systematic measurement error. For instance, in disaster loss databases, county-level losses reported may differ from the true damages due…

Calibration is an essential step in radio interferometric data processing that corrects the data for systematic errors and in addition, subtracts bright foreground interference to reveal weak signals hidden in the residual. These weak and…

Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the…

Imputation of missing data in large regions of satellite imagery is necessary when the acquired image has been damaged by shadows due to clouds, or information gaps produced by sensor failure. The general approach for imputation of missing…

Machine learning models are increasingly used to produce predictions that serve as input data in subsequent statistical analyses. For example, computer vision predictions of economic and environmental indicators based on satellite imagery…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

There is a growing need for flexible general frameworks that integrate individual-level data with external summary information for improved statistical inference. External information relevant for a risk prediction model may come in…

Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components -- proper calibration…