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Whenever a clinician reflects on the efficacy of a sequence of treatment decisions for a patient, they may try to identify critical time steps where, had they made different decisions, the patient's health would have improved. While recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Stratis Tsirtsis , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Inferring cause-effect relationships from observational data has gained significant attention in recent years, but most methods are limited to scalar random variables. In many important domains, including neuroscience, psychology, social…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-06 Konstantin Göbler , Tobias Windisch , Mathias Drton

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

The effectiveness of model training heavily relies on the quality of available training resources. However, budget constraints often impose limitations on data collection efforts. To tackle this challenge, we introduce causal exploration in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Yupei Yang , Biwei Huang , Shikui Tu , Lei Xu

Counterfactual thinking is a crucial yet challenging topic for artificial intelligence to learn knowledge from data and ultimately improve performance for new scenarios. Many research works, including the Potential Outcome Model (POM) and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Mingyu Kang , Duxin Chen , Ziyuan Pu , Jianxi Gao , Wenwu Yu

Lewis' theory of counterfactuals is the foundation of many contemporary notions of causality. In this paper, we extend this theory in the temporal direction to enable symbolic counterfactual reasoning on infinite sequences, such as…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Bernd Finkbeiner , Julian Siber

Computer-based simulation of pedestrian dynamics reached meaningful results in the last decade, thanks to empirical evidences and acquired knowledge fitting fundamental diagram constraints and space utilization. Moreover, computational…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2016-10-26 Luca Crociani , Daichi Yanagisawa , Giuseppe Vizzari , Katsuhiro Nishinari , Stefania Bandini

Causality lays the foundation for the trajectory of our world. Causal inference (CI), which aims to infer intrinsic causal relations among variables of interest, has emerged as a crucial research topic. Nevertheless, the lack of observation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Yaochen Zhu , Yinhan He , Jing Ma , Mengxuan Hu , Sheng Li , Jundong Li

This paper investigates the problem of bounding counterfactual queries from an arbitrary collection of observational and experimental distributions and qualitative knowledge about the underlying data-generating model represented in the form…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-10-13 Junzhe Zhang , Jin Tian , Elias Bareinboim

A major challenge in estimating treatment effects in observational studies is the reliance on untestable conditions such as the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. In this work, we propose an algorithm that can falsify the assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Rickard K. A. Karlsson , Jesse H. Krijthe

Training control policies in simulation is more appealing than on real robots directly, as it allows for exploring diverse states in an efficient manner. Yet, robot simulators inevitably exhibit disparities from the real-world…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-10-23 Peide Huang , Xilun Zhang , Ziang Cao , Shiqi Liu , Mengdi Xu , Wenhao Ding , Jonathan Francis , Bingqing Chen , Ding Zhao

Causal discovery from data affected by latent confounders is an important and difficult challenge. Causal functional model-based approaches have not been used to present variables whose relationships are affected by latent confounders,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

Causal additive models provide a tractable yet expressive framework for causal discovery in the presence of hidden variables. When unobserved backdoor or causal paths exist between two variables, their causal relationship is often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Thong Pham , Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

Causal discovery from data affected by unobserved variables is an important but difficult problem to solve. The effects that unobserved variables have on the relationships between observed variables are more complex in nonlinear cases than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

Causal inference in brain networks has traditionally relied on regression-based models such as Granger causality, structural equation modeling, and dynamic causal modeling. While effective for identifying directed associations, these…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-01 Moo K. Chung , Luigi Maccotta , Aaron Struck

Learning to perform accurate and rich simulations of human driving behaviors from data for autonomous vehicle testing remains challenging due to human driving styles' high diversity and variance. We address this challenge by proposing a…

Prevalent theories in cognitive science propose that humans understand and represent the knowledge of the world through causal relationships. In making sense of the world, we build causal models in our mind to encode cause-effect relations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-21 Prashan Madumal , Tim Miller , Liz Sonenberg , Frank Vetere

In this work we aim to bridge the divide between autonomous vehicles and causal reasoning. Autonomous vehicles have come to increasingly interact with human drivers, and in many cases may pose risks to the physical or mental well-being of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Rhys Howard , Lars Kunze

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Wasim Ahmad , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler

Much of scientific data is collected as randomized experiments intervening on some and observing other variables of interest. Quite often, a given phenomenon is investigated in several studies, and different sets of variables are involved…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-19 Antti Hyttinen , Frederick Eberhardt , Patrik O. Hoyer