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We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

Initialisation of the EM algorithm in model-based clustering is often crucial. Various starting points in the parameter space often lead to different local maxima of the likelihood function and, so to different clustering partitions. Among…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-28 Luca Scrucca , Adrian E. Raftery

The integration of constrained optimization models as components in deep networks has led to promising advances on many specialized learning tasks. A central challenge in this setting is backpropagation through the solution of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 James Kotary , Jacob Christopher , My H Dinh , Ferdinando Fioretto

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Tomoharu Iwata , Zoubin Ghahramani

This work introduces a novel probabilistic deep learning technique called deep Gaussian mixture ensembles (DGMEs), which enables accurate quantification of both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. By assuming the data generating process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-13 Yousef El-Laham , Niccolò Dalmasso , Elizabeth Fons , Svitlana Vyetrenko

Gaussian graphical models are of great interest in statistical learning. Because the conditional independencies between different nodes correspond to zero entries in the inverse covariance matrix of the Gaussian distribution, one can learn…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-11-02 Katya Scheinberg , Shiqian Ma , Donald Goldfarb

We propose a modified version of the three-step estimation method for the latent class model with covariates, which may be used to estimate latent Markov models for longitudinal data. The three-step estimation approach we propose is based…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-06 Francesco Bartolucci , Giorgio E. Montanari , Silvia Pandolfi

Unrolled computation graphs arise in many scenarios, including training RNNs, tuning hyperparameters through unrolled optimization, and training learned optimizers. Current approaches to optimizing parameters in such computation graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Paul Vicol , Luke Metz , Jascha Sohl-Dickstein

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of latent variable models is often recast as the minimization of a free energy functional over an extended space of parameters and probability distributions. This perspective was recently combined with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Jen Ning Lim , Juan Kuntz , Samuel Power , Adam M. Johansen

Bayesian inference for hierarchical models can be very challenging. MCMC methods have difficulty scaling to large models with many observations and latent variables. While variational inference (VI) and reweighted wake-sleep (RWS) can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-12 Thomas Heap , Sam Bowyer , Laurence Aitchison

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) are widely used to discover latent structure in data, but their success hinges on selecting an appropriate model design. In practice, model specification is difficult and often requires iterative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Kevin Zhang , Yixin Wang

Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) are generative models of complex systems. They rely on conditional independence assumptions between variables to learn sparse representations which can be visualized in a form of a graph. Such models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Harsh Shrivastava , Urszula Chajewska , Robin Abraham , Xinshi Chen

In this work we address the problem of approximating high-dimensional data with a low-dimensional representation. We make the following contributions. We propose an inverse regression method which exchanges the roles of input and response,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-09-04 Antoine Deleforge , Florence Forbes , Radu Horaud

We introduce a constrained optimization framework for training transformers that behave like optimization descent algorithms. Specifically, we enforce layerwise descent constraints on the objective function and replace standard empirical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Javier Porras-Valenzuela , Samar Hadou , Alejandro Ribeiro

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Wenlong Chen

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-02 Masahiro Tanaka

Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging…

Computation · Statistics 2015-02-17 Andreas Svensson , Thomas B. Schön , Fredrik Lindsten

Ensemble randomized maximum likelihood (EnRML) is an iterative (stochastic) ensemble smoother, used for large and nonlinear inverse problems, such as history matching and data assimilation. Its current formulation is overly complicated and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-09-12 Patrick N. Raanes , Geir Evensen , Andreas S. Stordal

We study the class of state-space models and perform maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters. We consider a stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the likelihood function with the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-25 Umberto Picchini , Adeline Samson

The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-18 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan