Related papers: Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

There is considerable uncertainty about what properties, capabilities and motivations future AGIs will have. In some plausible scenarios, AGIs may pose security risks arising from accidents and defects. In order to mitigate these risks,…

Standard real options theory predicts delay in exercising the option to invest or deploy when extreme asset volatility or technological uncertainty are present. However, in the current race to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI),…

This report examines what I see as the core argument for concern about existential risk from misaligned artificial intelligence. I proceed in two stages. First, I lay out a backdrop picture that informs such concern. On this picture,…

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is an established field of research. Yet some have questioned if the term still has meaning. AGI has been subject to so much hype and speculation it has become something of a Rorschach test. Melanie…

Artificial intelligence (AI) is commonly depicted as transformative. Yet, after more than a decade of hype, its measurable impact remains modest outside a few high-profile scientific and commercial successes. The 2024 Nobel Prizes in…

The AI alignment problem, which focusses on ensuring that artificial intelligence (AI), including AGI and ASI, systems act according to human values, presents profound challenges. With the progression from narrow AI to Artificial General…

This paper presents a tentative outline for the construction of an artificial, generally intelligent system (AGI). It is argued that building a general data compression algorithm solving all problems up to a complexity threshold should be…

The issues of AI risk and AI safety are becoming critical as the prospect of artificial general intelligence (AGI) looms larger. The emergence of extremely large and capable generative models has led to alarming predictions and created a…

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has apparently become one of the most important techniques discovered by humans in history while the human brain is widely recognized as one of the most complex systems in the universe. One fundamental critical…

Recent years have witnessed the rapid progression of deep learning, pushing us closer to the realization of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). Probabilistic modeling is critical to many of these advancements, which provides a…

AGI Racing is the view that it is in the self-interest of major actors in AI development, especially powerful nations, to accelerate their frontier AI development to build highly capable AI, especially artificial general intelligence (AGI),…

Existing theoretical universal algorithmic intelligence models are not practically realizable. More pragmatic approach to artificial general intelligence is based on cognitive architectures, which are, however, non-universal in sense that…

Generative Artificial Intelligence is emerging as an important technology, promising to be transformative in many areas. At the same time, generative AI techniques are based on sampling from probabilistic models, and by default, they come…

Everyone from AI executives and researchers to doomsayers, politicians, and activists is talking about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Yet, they often don't seem to agree on its exact definition. One common definition of AGI is an AI…

As AI adoption accelerates, research on its economic impacts becomes a salient source to consider for stakeholders of AI policy. Such research is however still in its infancy, and one in need of review. This paper aims to accomplish just…

AGI has become the Holly Grail of AI with the promise of level intelligence and the major Tech companies around the world are investing unprecedented amounts of resources in its pursuit. Yet, there does not exist a single formal definition…

AI risks are typically framed around physical threats to humanity, a loss of control or an accidental error causing humanity's extinction. However, I argue in line with the gradual disempowerment thesis, that there is an underappreciated…

We introduce GAIA, a benchmark for General AI Assistants that, if solved, would represent a milestone in AI research. GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling,…

The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence (ARC-AGI), introduced in 2019, established a challenging benchmark for evaluating the general fluid intelligence of artificial systems via a set of unique, novel tasks…

Current AI systems are better than humans in some knowledge dimensions but weaker in others. Guided by the long-standing vision of machine intelligence inspired by the Turing Test, AI developers increasingly seek to eliminate this "jagged"…