Related papers: Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) does not yet exist, but given the pace of technological development in artificial intelligence, it is projected to reach human-level intelligence within roughly the next two decades. After that, many…
This paper is an analysis of the different methods proposed to achieve AGI, including Human Brain Emulation, AIXI and Integrated Cognitive Architecture. First, the definition of AGI as used in this paper has been defined, and its…
We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We…
From early days, a key and controversial question inside the artificial intelligence community was whether Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is achievable. AGI is the ability of machines and computer programs to achieve human-level…
The original vision of AI was re-articulated in 2002 via the term 'Artificial General Intelligence' or AGI. This vision is to build 'Thinking Machines' - computer systems that can learn, reason, and solve problems similar to the way humans…
General intelligence, the ability to solve arbitrary solvable problems, is supposed by many to be artificially constructible. Narrow intelligence, the ability to solve a given particularly difficult problem, has seen impressive recent…
In the largest survey of its kind, 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues gave predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems The aggregate forecasts…
Artificial general intelligence (AGI)--defined here as AI systems that match or exceed humans at most economically useful cognitive work--has moved from speculation to the centre of political and strategic debate. This paper examines three…
As of December 2024, the ARC-AGI benchmark is five years old and remains unbeaten. We believe it is currently the most important unsolved AI benchmark in the world because it seeks to measure generalization on novel tasks -- the essence of…
There is, in some quarters, concern about high-level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science…
This study demonstrates the extent to which prominent debates about the future of AI are best understood as subjective, philosophical disagreements over the history and future of technological change rather than as objective, material…
The terms 'human-level artificial intelligence' and 'artificial general intelligence' are widely used to refer to the possibility of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) with potentially extreme impacts on society. These terms are poorly…
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been a long-standing goal of humanity, with the aim of creating machines capable of performing any intellectual task that humans can do. To achieve this, AGI researchers draw inspiration from the…
This study investigates public expectations regarding the likelihood and timing of major artificial intelligence (AI) developments among Swedes. Through a mixed-mode survey (web/paper) of 1,026 respondents, we examined expectations across…
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is increasingly being discussed not only as a tool, but also as a potential subject with personal and therefore moral status. In our opinion, the currently dominant alignment strategies, which focus on…
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may face a confrontation question: under what conditions would a rationally self-interested AGI choose to seize power or eliminate human control (a confrontation) rather than remain cooperative? We…
The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC-AGI) has become a key benchmark for fluid intelligence in AI. This survey presents the first cross-generation analysis of 82 approaches across three benchmark versions and the ARC Prize 2024-2025…
Discussions surrounding Artificial General Intelligence have largely focused on technical feasibility, timelines, and existential risk, often treating its social impact as being the same across different populations. Less attention has been…
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results…
In coming years or decades, artificial general intelligence (AGI) may surpass human capabilities across many critical domains. We argue that, without substantial effort to prevent it, AGIs could learn to pursue goals that are in conflict…