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Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Janardhan Rao Doppa

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Yangyi Li , Chenxu Zhao , Mengdi Huai

Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

We study the problem of quantifying epistemic predictive uncertainty (EPU) -- that is, uncertainty faced at prediction time due to the existence of multiple plausible predictive models -- within the framework of conformal prediction (CP).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Siu Lun Chau , Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Yusuf Sale , Michele Caprio

Background and objective: Uncertainty quantification is a pivotal field that contributes to realizing reliable and robust systems. It becomes instrumental in fortifying safe decisions by providing complementary information, particularly…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-19 Jamil Fayyad , Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Bernhard Schölkopf , Lisa Koch , Christian F. Baumgartner , Michael Muehlebach

Uncertainty Quantification aims to determine when the prediction from a Machine Learning model is likely to be wrong. Computer Vision research has explored methods for determining epistemic uncertainty (also known as model uncertainty),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Prithviraj Manivannan , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Andreea Ioana Sburlea

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Daniel Nolte , Souparno Ghosh , Ranadip Pal

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam
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