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Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks. By directly modeling the loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yi Hung Lim

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. Various uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Statistical learning algorithms provide a generally-applicable framework to sidestep time-consuming experiments, or accurate physics-based modeling, but they introduce a further source of error on top of the intrinsic limitations of the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-05-17 Matthias Kellner , Michele Ceriotti

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Sebastian G. Gruber

Research in neural networks in the field of computer vision has achieved remarkable accuracy for point estimation. However, the uncertainty in the estimation is rarely addressed. Uncertainty quantification accompanied by point estimation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-23 Min-hwan Oh , Peder A. Olsen , Karthikeyan Natesan Ramamurthy

This short paper presents research findings on two learning-based methods for quantifying measurement uncertainties in global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). We investigate two learning strategies: offline learning for outlier…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Haoming Zhang

While the Graybox characterization method allows for implicit noise models and is platform-agnostic, the method lacks uncertainty quantification. Characterization of quantum devices is a crucial process that enables researchers to gain…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Poramet Pathumsoot , Michal Hajdušek , Rodney Van Meter

Automatic anatomical landmark localization has made great strides by leveraging deep learning methods in recent years. The ability to quantify the uncertainty of these predictions is a vital component needed for these methods to be adopted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Lawrence Schobs , Andrew J. Swift , Haiping Lu

Uncertainty quantification of complex technical systems is often based on a computer model of the system. As all models such a computer model is always wrong in the sense that it does not describe the reality perfectly. The purpose of this…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-18 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-08-26 T. N. Palmer , F. J. Doblas-Reyes , A. Weisheimer , G. J. Shutts , J. Berner , J. M. Murphy

Many applications in aerodynamics, particularly in closed-loop control, depend on sensors to estimate the evolving state of the flow. This estimation task is inherently accompanied by uncertainty due to the noisy measurements of sensors or…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-01-07 Jeff D. Eldredge , Hanieh Mousavi

Uncertainty quantification is at the core of the reliability and robustness of machine learning. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to dissect the uncertainty, especially the \textit{epistemic} component, in deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

Uncertainty quantification is a primary challenge for reliable modeling and simulation of complex stochastic dynamics. Such problems are typically plagued with incomplete information that may enter as uncertainty in the model parameters, or…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-15 Paul Dupuis , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Yannis Pantazis , Petr Plechac

Autonomous robotic tasks require actively perceiving the environment to achieve application-specific goals. In this paper, we address the problem of positioning an RGB camera to collect the most informative images to represent an unknown…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Liren Jin , Xieyuanli Chen , Julius Rückin , Marija Popović

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-11-02 Dae Heun Koh , Aashwin Mishra , Kazuhiro Terao

In chemistry, deep neural network models have been increasingly utilized in a variety of applications such as molecular property predictions, novel molecule designs, and planning chemical reactions. Despite the rapid increase in the use of…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2019-05-17 Seongok Ryu , Yongchan Kwon , Woo Youn Kim

Reliable quantification of uncertainty in Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) point clouds is essential for ensuring the accuracy and credibility of downstream applications such as 3D mapping, modeling, and change analysis. Traditional backward…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Ziyang Xu , Olaf Wysocki , Christoph Holst

In this paper, we give a double twist to the problem of planning under uncertainty. State-of-the-art planners seek to minimize the localization uncertainty by only considering the geometric structure of the scene. In this paper, we argue…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-02-13 Gabriele Costante , Christian Forster , Jeffrey Delmerico , Paolo Valigi , Davide Scaramuzza

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

Modern data-driven applications that make real-time decisions increasingly depend on advanced sensors which use pre-stored calibration data. In such applications, accurate characterization of sensor output uncertainty is important for…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-09 Orestis Kaparounakis , Phillip Stanley-Marbell