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The uncertainty quantification of sensor measurements coupled with deep learning networks is crucial for many robotics systems, especially for safety-critical applications such as self-driving cars. This paper develops an uncertainty…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Qiyuan Wu , Mark Campbell

In machine learning, uncertainty quantification helps assess the reliability of model predictions, which is important in high-stakes scenarios. Traditional approaches often emphasize predictive accuracy, but there is a growing focus on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Jake S. Rhodes , Scott D. Brown , J. Riley Wilkinson

This paper proposes a fast and scalable method for uncertainty quantification of machine learning models' predictions. First, we show the principled way to measure the uncertainty of predictions for a classifier based on Nadaraya-Watson's…

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

Uncertainty Quantification aims to determine when the prediction from a Machine Learning model is likely to be wrong. Computer Vision research has explored methods for determining epistemic uncertainty (also known as model uncertainty),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Prithviraj Manivannan , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Andreea Ioana Sburlea

In many safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving and surgical robots, it is desirable to obtain prediction uncertainties from object detection modules to help support safe decision-making. Specifically, such modules need to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-29 Buu Phan , Rick Salay , Krzysztof Czarnecki , Vahdat Abdelzad , Taylor Denouden , Sachin Vernekar

Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for perception systems in safe autonomous driving. Recently, many methods have been proposed to model uncertainties in deep learning based object detectors. However, the estimated probabilities are…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-09-30 Di Feng , Lars Rosenbaum , Claudius Glaeser , Fabian Timm , Klaus Dietmayer

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for the deployment of image restoration models in safety-critical domains, like autonomous driving and biological imaging. To date, methods for uncertainty visualization have mainly focused on per-pixel…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Elias Nehme , Omer Yair , Tomer Michaeli

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Peter Grönquist , Tal Ben-Nun , Nikoli Dryden , Peter Dueben , Luca Lavarini , Shigang Li , Torsten Hoefler

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Weizhu Qian , Dalin Zhang , Yan Zhao , Kai Zheng , James J. Q. Yu

Virtual Diagnostic (VD) is a deep learning tool that can be used to predict a diagnostic output. VDs are especially useful in systems where measuring the output is invasive, limited, costly or runs the risk of damaging the output. Given a…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2021-08-02 Owen Convery , Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal , Adi Hanuka

Estimating the uncertainty of a neural network plays a fundamental role in safety-critical settings. In perception for autonomous driving, measuring the uncertainty means providing additional calibrated information to downstream tasks, such…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Stefano Gasperini , Jan Haug , Mohammad-Ali Nikouei Mahani , Alvaro Marcos-Ramiro , Nassir Navab , Benjamin Busam , Federico Tombari

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Mengyang Gu , Yizi Lin , Victor Chang Lee , Diana Qiu

This work presents a probabilistic deep neural network that combines LiDAR point clouds and RGB camera images for robust, accurate 3D object detection. We explicitly model uncertainties in the classification and regression tasks, and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-02-04 Di Feng , Yifan Cao , Lars Rosenbaum , Fabian Timm , Klaus Dietmayer

Traffic prediction is a crucial topic because of its broad scope of applications in the transportation domain. Recently, various studies have achieved promising results. However, most studies assume the prediction locations have complete or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Hao Mei , Junxian Li , Zhiming Liang , Guanjie Zheng , Bin Shi , Hua Wei

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

Data-driven model identification strategies can be used to obtain phenomenological models that capture the temporal evolution of observable data. While it is usually straightforward to obtain such a model from time series data, for instance…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Mohamed Akrout , Dan Wilson

Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Laura A. Mansfield , Hannah M. Christensen
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