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We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

Learning-based methods for inverse problems, adapting to the data's inherent structure, have become ubiquitous in the last decade. Besides empirical investigations of their often remarkable performance, an increasing number of works…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-21 Clemens Arndt , Sören Dittmer , Nick Heilenkötter , Meira Iske , Tobias Kluth , Judith Nickel

Bayesian deep learning (BDL) is a promising approach to achieve well-calibrated predictions on distribution-shifted data. Nevertheless, there exists no large-scale survey that evaluates recent SOTA methods on diverse, realistic, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Florian Seligmann , Philipp Becker , Michael Volpp , Gerhard Neumann

When faced with distribution shift at test time, deep neural networks often make inaccurate predictions with unreliable uncertainty estimates. While improving the robustness of neural networks is one promising approach to mitigate this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Aurick Zhou , Sergey Levine

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Julian Rodemann , Alexander Marquard , Thomas Augustin , Michele Caprio

Modern deep neural networks are powerful predictive tools yet often lack valid inference for causal parameters, such as treatment effects or entire survival curves. While frameworks like Double Machine Learning (DML) and Targeted Maximum…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Yi Li , David Mccoy , Nolan Gunter , Kaitlyn Lee , Alejandro Schuler , Mark van der Laan

Deep neural networks are known to be vulnerable to unseen data: they may wrongly assign high confidence stcores to out-distribuion samples. Recent works try to solve the problem using representation learning methods and specific metrics. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Haowei He , Jiaye Teng , Yang Yuan

Meta-reinforcement learning trains a single reinforcement learning agent on a distribution of tasks to quickly generalize to new tasks outside of the training set at test time. From a Bayesian perspective, one can interpret this as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Joery A. de Vries , Jinke He , Mathijs M. de Weerdt , Matthijs T. J. Spaan

Deep learning has become the method of choice to tackle real-world problems in different domains, partly because of its ability to learn from data and achieve impressive performance on a wide range of applications. However, its success…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-17 Xiaofeng Liu , Chaehwa Yoo , Fangxu Xing , Hyejin Oh , Georges El Fakhri , Je-Won Kang , Jonghye Woo

Uncertainty estimation for unlabeled data is crucial to active learning. With a deep neural network employed as the backbone model, the data selection process is highly challenging due to the potential over-confidence of the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Xingjian Li , Pengkun Yang , Yangcheng Gu , Xueying Zhan , Tianyang Wang , Min Xu , Chengzhong Xu

QA models based on pretrained language mod-els have achieved remarkable performance on various benchmark datasets.However, QA models do not generalize well to unseen data that falls outside the training distribution, due to distributional…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Seanie Lee , Minki Kang , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is a three-level hierarchical Bayesian model for topic inference. In spite of its great success, inferring the latent topic distribution with LDA is time-consuming. Motivated by the transfer learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-08-06 Dongxu Zhang , Tianyi Luo , Dong Wang , Rong Liu

Learning a sequence of tasks without access to i.i.d. observations is a widely studied form of continual learning (CL) that remains challenging. In principle, Bayesian learning directly applies to this setting, since recursive and one-off…

A critical aspect of analyzing and improving modern machine learning systems lies in understanding how individual training examples influence a model's predictive behavior. Estimating this influence enables critical applications, including…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Narine Kokhlikyan , Kamalika Chaudhuri , Saeed Mahloujifar

Multisource domain adaptation (MDA) aims to use multiple source datasets with available labels to infer labels on a target dataset without available labels for target supervision. Prior works on MDA in the literature is ad-hoc as the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Alexander M. Glandon , Khan M. Iftekharuddin

There is significant growth and interest in the use of synthetic data as an enabler for machine learning in environments where the release of real data is restricted due to privacy or availability constraints. Despite a large number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Harrison Wilde , Jack Jewson , Sebastian Vollmer , Chris Holmes

While uncertainty estimation is a well-studied topic in deep learning, most such work focuses on marginal uncertainty estimates, i.e. the predictive mean and variance at individual input locations. But it is often more useful to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Chaoqi Wang , Shengyang Sun , Roger Grosse

Bayesian inference provides a principled probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty by updating beliefs based on prior knowledge and observed data through Bayes' theorem. In Bayesian deep learning, neural network weights are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Yijie Zhang

Modelling noisy data in a network context remains an unavoidable obstacle; fortunately, random matrix theory may comprehensively describe network environments effectively. Thus it necessitates the probabilistic characterisation of these…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-04 J. Pillay , A. Bekker , J. T. Ferreira , M. Arashi
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