Related papers: Forecasting high-dimensional functional time serie…

Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…

The determination of the elements of the S-matrix within the framework of time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT) has remained a widely open question. We explore two different methods to calculate state-to-state transition…

The logical structure and the basic theorems of time-dependent current density functional theory (TDCDFT) are analyzed and reconsidered from the point of view of recently proposed time-dependent deformation functional theory (TDDefFT). It…

We proposed a data-driven approach to dissect multivariate time series in order to discover multiple phases underlying dynamics of complex systems. This computing approach is developed as a multiple-dimension version of Hierarchical Factor…

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the…

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…

Multivariate time series forecasting is a pivotal task in several domains, including financial planning, medical diagnostics, and climate science. This paper presents the Neural Fourier Transform (NFT) algorithm, which combines…

The Health State Function theory is applied to find a quantitative estimate of the Human Development Stages by defining and calculating the specific age groups and subgroups. Early and late adolescence stages, first, second and third stages…

We develop a hierarchical infinite latent factor model (HIFM) to appropriately account for the covariance structure across subpopulations in data. We propose a novel Hierarchical Dirichlet Process shrinkage prior on the loadings matrix that…

Many economic and scientific problems involve the analysis of high-dimensional functional time series, where the number of functional variables $p$ diverges as the number of serially dependent observations $n$ increases. In this paper, we…

Statistical analysis of high-dimensional functional times series arises in various applications. Under this scenario, in addition to the intrinsic infinite-dimensionality of functional data, the number of functional variables can grow with…

This paper is concerned with forecasting probability density functions. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral; thus, they do not constitute a vector space. Implementing unconstrained functional time-series…

Time series modeling for predictive purpose has been an active research area of machine learning for many years. However, no sufficiently comprehensive and meanwhile substantive survey was offered so far. This survey strives to meet this…

This study introduces a novel forecasting strategy that leverages the power of fractional differencing (FD) to capture both short- and long-term dependencies in time series data. Unlike traditional integer differencing methods, FD preserves…

Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS)…

Designing efficient and robust algorithms for accurate prediction of stock market prices is one of the most exciting challenges in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. With the exponential rate of development and evolution of…

This study explores the potential of zero-shot time series forecasting, an innovative approach leveraging pre-trained foundation models, to forecast mortality rates without task-specific fine-tuning. We evaluate two state-of-the-art…

In economics and many other forecasting domains, the real world problems are too complex for a single model that assumes a specific data generation process. The forecasting performance of different methods changes depending on the nature of…