Related papers: About Decisiveness of Dynamic Probabilistic Models
The Pairwise Markov Chain (PMC) is a probabilistic graphical model extending the well-known Hidden Markov Model. This model, although highly effective for many tasks, has been scarcely utilized for continuous value prediction. This is…
We consider imperative programs that involve both randomization and pure nondeterminism. The central question is how to find a strategy resolving the pure nondeterminism such that the so-obtained determinized program satisfies a given…
Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution $\pi$ by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel $P$ such that $\pi$ is invariant under $P$. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible…
In this paper we focus on the problem of assigning uncertainties to single-point predictions generated by a deterministic model that outputs a continuous variable. This problem applies to any state-of-the-art physics or engineering models…
A fundamental question in the debate about the interpretations of quantum mechanics (QM) is whether the universe is fundamentally deterministic or fundamentally probabilistic. This self-contained paper shows for a microsystem made up of a…
In this paper, we consider general Markov chains (MC), specified by the transition probability (kernel) $ P (x, E) $, finitely additive in the second argument. Such MC are studied within the framework of the functional operator treatment.…
In Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with intermittent state information, decision-making becomes challenging due to periods of missing observations. Linear programming (LP) methods can play a crucial role in solving MDPs, in particular,…
Uncertain partially observable Markov decision processes (uPOMDPs) allow the probabilistic transition and observation functions of standard POMDPs to belong to a so-called uncertainty set. Such uncertainty, referred to as epistemic…
Ergodic properties and asymptotic stationarity are investigated in this paper for the pseudo-covariance matrix (PCM) of a recursive state estimator which is robust against parametric uncertainties and is based on plant output measurements…
Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…
Probabilistic models are a critical part of the modern deep learning toolbox - ranging from generative models (VAEs, GANs), sequence to sequence models used in machine translation and speech processing to models over functional spaces…
This paper presents with justifications a technique that is useful for the study of piecewise deterministic Markov decision processes (PDMDPs) with general policies and unbounded transition intensities. This technique produces an auxiliary…
In this paper we propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for linear discrete-time systems affected by possibly unbounded additive disturbances and subject to probabilistic constraints. Constraints are treated in…
In this article we propose a novel MCMC method based on deterministic transformations T: X x D --> X where X is the state-space and D is some set which may or may not be a subset of X. We refer to our new methodology as Transformation-based…
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are probabilistic models for repulsion. When used to represent the occurrence of random subsets of a finite base set, DPPs allow to model global negative associations in a mathematically elegant and…
Consider a sequence $P_n$ of positive recurrent transition matrices or kernels that approximate a limiting infinite state matrix or kernel $P_{\infty}$. Such approximations arise naturally when one truncates an infinite state Markov chain…
Nondeterministic weighted automata are finite automata with numerical weights on transitions. They define quantitative languages L that assign to each word w a real number L(w). The value of an infinite word w is computed as the maximal…
Among the different possible strategies for evaluating the reliability of individual predictions of classifiers, robustness quantification stands out as a method that evaluates how much uncertainty a classifier could cope with before…
Empirical estimation of critical points at which complex systems abruptly flip from one state to another is among the remaining challenges in network science. However, due to the stochastic nature of critical transitions it is widely…
We present a nonparametric prior over reversible Markov chains. We use completely random measures, specifically gamma processes, to construct a countably infinite graph with weighted edges. By enforcing symmetry to make the edges undirected…