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We propose a new method, called MonteCarlo Posterior Fit, to boost the MonteCarlo sampling of likelihood (posterior) functions. The idea is to approximate the posterior function by an analytical multidimensional non-Gaussian fit. The many…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-19 Luca Amendola , Adrià Gómez-Valent

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira , Javier López-Santiago , Gustau Camps-Valls

A core problem in statistics and probabilistic machine learning is to compute probability distributions and expectations. This is the fundamental problem of Bayesian statistics and machine learning, which frames all inference as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-06 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

The effectiveness of active learning largely depends on the sampling efficiency of the acquisition function. Expected Loss Reduction (ELR) focuses on a Bayesian estimate of the reduction in classification error, and more general costs fit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Wei Tan , Lan Du , Wray Buntine

We derive a parallel sampling algorithm for computational inverse problems that present an unknown linear forcing term and a vector of nonlinear parameters to be recovered. It is assumed that the data is noisy and that the linear part of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-24 Darko Volkov

It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-17 Leo L. Duan , Anirban Bhattacharya

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Samuel Kessler , Adam Cobb , Tim G. J. Rudner , Stefan Zohren , Stephen J. Roberts

Delayed-acceptance is a technique for reducing computational effort for Bayesian models with expensive likelihoods. Using a delayed-acceptance kernel for Markov chain Monte Carlo can reduce the number of expensive likelihoods evaluations…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , Anthony Lee , Christopher Drovandi

We introduce a new Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2014-10-01 Benjamin Farr , Vicky Kalogera , Erik Luijten

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-27 Edwin Fong , Simon Lyddon , Chris Holmes

Bayesian model selection enables comparison and ranking of conceptual subsurface models described by spatial prior models, according to the support provided by available geophysical data. Deep generative neural networks can efficiently…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-19 M. Amaya , N. Linde , E. Laloy

Increased access to computing resources has led to the development of algorithms that can run efficiently on multi-core processing units or in distributed computing environments. In the context of Bayesian inference, many parallel computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-11 Daniel Würzler Barreto , Mevin B. Hooten

We present an new sequential Monte Carlo sampler for coalescent based Bayesian hierarchical clustering. Our model is appropriate for modeling non-i.i.d. data and offers a substantial reduction of computational cost when compared to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-04-23 Ricardo Henao , Joseph E. Lucas

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-13 Ryan S. Y. Chan , Murray Pollock , Adam M. Johansen , Gareth O. Roberts

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a widely applicable and popular approach to estimating unknown parameters of mechanistic models. As ABC analyses are computationally expensive, parallelization on high-performance infrastructure is…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-02 Emad Alamoudi , Felipe Reck , Nils Bundgaard , Frederik Graw , Lutz Brusch , Jan Hasenauer , Yannik Schälte

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-24 Minas Karamanis , Uroš Seljak

Bayesian inference involves two main computational challenges. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the posterior distribution may well be highly multi-modal: a regime in which the convergence to stationarity of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-12-10 F. Feroz , M. P. Hobson , E. Cameron , A. N. Pettitt

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-18 Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

Numerical simulations of models and theories that describe complex systems such as spin glasses are becoming increasingly important. Beyond fundamental research, these computational methods also find practical applications in fields like…