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We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Jonas F. Frederiksen , Muneya Matsui , Rasmus S. Pedersen

The tail index, indicating the degree of fatness of the tail distribution, is an important component of extreme value theory since it dominates the asymptotic distribution of extreme values such as the sample maximum. In this paper, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-06-12 Moosup Kim , Sangyeol Lee

This paper proposes a new test for a change point in the mean of high-dimensional data based on the spatial sign and self-normalization. The test is easy to implement with no tuning parameters, robust to heavy-tailedness and theoretically…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Feiyu Jiang , Runmin Wang , Xiaofeng Shao

We study high-probability convergence guarantees of learning on streaming data in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. In the proposed scenario, the model is updated in an online fashion, as new information is observed, without storing any…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Aleksandar Armacki , Pranay Sharma , Gauri Joshi , Dragana Bajovic , Dusan Jakovetic , Soummya Kar

In this paper, we propose an new the CUSUM sequential test (control chart, stopping time) with the observation-adjusted control limits (CUSUM-OAL) for monitoring quickly and adaptively the change in distribution of a sequential…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-25 F. Tang , D. Han

We study large deviation upper bounds and mean-squared error (MSE) guarantees of a general framework of nonlinear stochastic gradient methods in the online setting, in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. Unlike existing works that rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Aleksandar Armacki , Shuhua Yu , Dragana Bajovic , Dusan Jakovetic , Soummya Kar

We study efficient algorithms for linear regression and covariance estimation in the absence of Gaussian assumptions on the underlying distributions of samples, making assumptions instead about only finitely-many moments. We focus on how…

In this paper, we study the detection boundary for minimax hypothesis testing in the context of high-dimensional, sparse binary regression models. Motivated by genetic sequencing association studies for rare variant effects, we investigate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-06 Rajarshi Mukherjee , Natesh S. Pillai , Xihong Lin

We study the problem of robust mean estimation with adversarially contaminated data under star-shaped constraints in a heavy-tailed noise setting, where only a finite second moment $ \sigma ^2 $ is assumed. For a contamination level $…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Tuorui Peng , Akshay Prasadan , Matey Neykov

We study global inference for regression coefficients in high-dimensional linear models under potentially heavy-tailed errors. While sum-type tests are powerful for dense alternatives and max-type tests excel for sparse alternatives,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Ping Zhao , Liangliang Yuan

We study the problem of factor modelling vector- and tensor-valued time series in the presence of heavy tails in the data, which produce extreme observations with non-negligible probability. We propose to combine a two-step procedure for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Matteo Barigozzi , Haeran Cho , Hyeyoung Maeng

The problem of univariate mean change point detection and localization based on a sequence of $n$ independent observations with piecewise constant means has been intensively studied for more than half century, and serves as a blueprint for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-07 Daren Wang , Yi Yu , Alessandro Rinaldo

We study deviation of U-statistics when samples have heavy-tailed distribution so the kernel of the U-statistic does not have bounded exponential moments at any positive point. We obtain an exponential upper bound for the tail of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-30 Milad Bakhshizadeh

In this work, we establish risk bounds for the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with both dependent and heavy-tailed data-generating processes. We do so by extending the seminal works of Mendelson [Men15, Men18] on the analysis of ERM with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Abhishek Roy , Krishnakumar Balasubramanian , Murat A. Erdogdu

Considered here are robust subgroup-classifier learning and testing in change-plane regressions with heavy-tailed errors, which can identify subgroups as a basis for making optimal recommendations for individualized treatment. A new…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-27 Xu Liu , Jian Huang , Yong Zhou , Xiao Zhang

In this paper, we propose a uniformly dithered 1-bit quantization scheme for high-dimensional statistical estimation. The scheme contains truncation, dithering, and quantization as typical steps. As canonical examples, the quantization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-23 Junren Chen , Cheng-Long Wang , Michael K. Ng , Di Wang

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

This paper considers the problems of detecting a change point and estimating the location in the correlation matrices of a sequence of high-dimensional vectors, where the dimension is large enough to be comparable to the sample size or even…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-07 Zhaoyuan Li , Jie Gao

Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-11 Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira

We investigate the high-dimensional properties of robust regression estimators in the presence of heavy-tailed contamination of both the covariates and response functions. In particular, we provide a sharp asymptotic characterisation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-03 Urte Adomaityte , Leonardo Defilippis , Bruno Loureiro , Gabriele Sicuro