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Large amounts of training data are one of the major reasons for the high performance of state-of-the-art NLP models. But what exactly in the training data causes a model to make a certain prediction? We seek to answer this question by…

Learning how to predict future events from patterns of past events is difficult when the set of possible event types is large. Training an unrestricted neural model might overfit to spurious patterns. To exploit domain-specific knowledge of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-18 Hongyuan Mei , Guanghui Qin , Minjie Xu , Jason Eisner

In many real-world application, e.g., speech recognition or sleep stage classification, data are captured over the course of time, constituting a Time-Series. Time-Series often contain temporal dependencies that cause two otherwise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-10 John Cristian Borges Gamboa

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively…

As the world increasingly relies on mathematical models for forecasts in different areas, effective communication of uncertainty in time series predictions is important for informed decision making. This study explores how users estimate…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Apoorva Karagappa , Pawandeep Kaur Betz , Jonas Gilg , Moritz Zeumer , Andreas Gerndt , Bernhard Preim

Anticipating supply chain disruptions before they materialize is a core challenge for firms and policymakers alike. A key difficulty is learning to reason reliably about infrequent, high-impact events from noisy and unstructured inputs - a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Benjamin Turtel , Paul Wilczewski , Kris Skotheim

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Wentao Gao , Xiaojing Du , Wenjun Yu , Xiongren Chen , Yifan Guo , Feiyu Yang

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of modern machine-learning models. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

We explored the challenge of predicting and explaining the occurrence of events within sequences of data points. Our focus was particularly on scenarios in which unknown triggers causing the occurrence of events may consist of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Harrison Lam , Yuanjie Chen , Noboru Kanazawa , Mohammad Chowdhury , Anna Battista , Stephan Waldert

Time series prediction is often complicated by distribution shift which demands adaptive models to accommodate time-varying distributions. We frame time series prediction under distribution shift as a weighted empirical risk minimisation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Stefanos Bennett , Jase Clarkson

The process of pattern formation for a multi-species model anchored on a time varying network is studied. A non homogeneous perturbation superposed to an homogeneous stable fixed point can amplify, as follows a novel mechanism of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-10-11 Julien Petit , Ben Lauwens , Duccio Fanelli , Timoteo Carletti

MAP perturbation models have emerged as a powerful framework for inference in structured prediction. Such models provide a way to efficiently sample from the Gibbs distribution and facilitate predictions that are robust to random noise. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-28 Asish Ghoshal , Jean Honorio

Despite the tremendous success of deep neural networks in various learning problems, it has been observed that adding an intentionally designed adversarial perturbation to inputs of these architectures leads to erroneous classification with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-19 Emilio Rafael Balda , Arash Behboodi , Rudolf Mathar

Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-28 Matthew J. Vowels

Genomic studies face a vast hypothesis space, while interventions such as gene perturbations remain costly and time-consuming. To accelerate such experiments, gene perturbation models predict the transcriptional outcome of interventions.…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-21 George Panagopoulos , Johannes F. Lutzeyer , Sofiane Ennadir , Michalis Vazirgiannis , Jun Pang

Network-linked data, where multivariate observations are interconnected by a network, are becoming increasingly prevalent in fields such as sociology and biology. These data often exhibit inherent noise and complex relational structures,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-11 Jianxiang Wang , Can M. Le , Tianxi Li

The problem of attribution is concerned with identifying the parts of an input that are responsible for a model's output. An important family of attribution methods is based on measuring the effect of perturbations applied to the input. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-10-21 Ruth Fong , Mandela Patrick , Andrea Vedaldi

Robustness and counterfactual bias are usually evaluated on a test dataset. However, are these evaluations robust? If the test dataset is perturbed slightly, will the evaluation results keep the same? In this paper, we propose a "double…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Chong Zhang , Jieyu Zhao , Huan Zhang , Kai-Wei Chang , Cho-Jui Hsieh

Forecasting with multivariate time series, which aims to predict future values given previous and current several univariate time series data, has been studied for decades, with one example being ARIMA. Because it is difficult to measure…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-19 Youngjin Park , Deokjun Eom , Byoungki Seo , Jaesik Choi

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) encapsulate large amounts of knowledge and take enormous amounts of compute to train. We make use of this resource, together with the observation that LLMs are able to transfer knowledge and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Malcolm L. Wolff , Shenghao Yang , Kari Torkkola , Michael W. Mahoney