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Gaussian process regression (GPR) has been a well-known machine learning method for various applications such as uncertainty quantifications (UQ). However, GPR is inherently a data-driven method, which requires sufficiently large dataset.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Cheng Chang , Tieyong Zeng

In many real-world problems, there is a limited set of training data, but an abundance of unlabeled data. We propose a new method, Generative Posterior Networks (GPNs), that uses unlabeled data to estimate epistemic uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Melrose Roderick , Felix Berkenkamp , Fatemeh Sheikholeslami , Zico Kolter

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-15 Hugh Salimbeni , Marc Deisenroth

We propose a probabilistic enhancement of standard kernel Support Vector Machines for binary classification, in order to address the case when, along with given data sets, a description of uncertainty (e.g., error bounds) may be available…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-19 Yongxin Chen , Tryphon T. Georgiou , Allen R. Tannenbaum

Bayesian model updating based on Gaussian Process (GP) models has received attention in recent years, which incorporates kernel-based GPs to provide enhanced fidelity response predictions. Although most kernel functions provide high fitting…

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Metod Jazbec , Eliot Wong-Toi , Guoxuan Xia , Dan Zhang , Eric Nalisnick , Stephan Mandt

A key challenge with controlling complex dynamical systems is to accurately model them. However, this requirement is very hard to satisfy in practice. Data-driven approaches such as Gaussian processes (GPs) have proved quite effective by…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Mouhyemen Khan , Akash Patel , Abhijit Chatterjee

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-11 Thomas Beckers

The Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM; Tobar et al., 2015a) is a model for signals with complex spectral structure. A significant limitation of the GPCM is that it assumes a rapidly decaying spectrum: it can only model smooth…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-15 Wessel P. Bruinsma , Martin Tegnér , Richard E. Turner

Gaussian process (GP) emulators have become essential tools for approximating complex simulators, significantly reducing computational demands in optimization, sensitivity analysis, and model calibration. While traditional GP emulators…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-26 Deyu Ming , Daniel Williamson

One major impediment to the wider use of deep learning for clinical decision making is the difficulty of assigning a level of confidence to model predictions. Currently, deep Bayesian neural networks and sparse Gaussian processes are the…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are instrumental in modeling spatial processes, offering precise interpolation and prediction capabilities across fields such as environmental science and biology. Recently, there has been growing interest in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Jiawen Chen , Aritra Halder , Yun Li , Sudipto Banerjee , Didong Li

The composition of multiple Gaussian Processes as a Deep Gaussian Process (DGP) enables a deep probabilistic nonparametric approach to flexibly tackle complex machine learning problems with sound quantification of uncertainty. Existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-02 Kurt Cutajar , Edwin V. Bonilla , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone

Bayesian methods have become a popular way to incorporate prior knowledge and a notion of uncertainty into machine learning models. At the same time, the complexity of modern machine learning makes it challenging to comprehend a model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Sarem Seitz

We consider Bayesian inference problems with computationally intensive likelihood functions. We propose a Gaussian process (GP) based method to approximate the joint distribution of the unknown parameters and the data. In particular, we…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-15 Hongqiao Wang , Jinglai Li

Forecasting future events is a fundamental challenge for temporal knowledge graphs (tKG). As in real life predicting a mean function is most of the time not sufficient, but the question remains how confident can we be about our prediction?…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-13 Soeren Nolting , Zhen Han , Volker Tresp

Studies of hadron resonances and their properties are limited by the accuracy and consistency of measured datasets, which can originate from many different experiments. We have used Gaussian Processes (GP) to build interpolated datasets,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-05-06 R. F. Ferguson , D. G. Ireland , B. McKinnon

Modern scientific problems are often multi-disciplinary and require integration of computer models from different disciplines, each with distinct functional complexities, programming environments, and computation times. Linked Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-05 Deyu Ming , Daniel Williamson

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have excellent representative power and are state of the art classifiers on many tasks. However, they often do not capture their own uncertainties well making them less robust in the real world as they…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-11 John Bradshaw , Alexander G. de G. Matthews , Zoubin Ghahramani

In the framework of the estimation of safety margins in nuclear accident analysis, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainties tainting the results of computer simulations is essential. Accurate uncertainty propagation (estimation of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-01 Bertrand Iooss , Amandine Marrel