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Panel data, in which multiple units are repeatedly observed over time, arise throughout science and engineering. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in such settings is challenging because conformal prediction, while distribution-free and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Daohong Tu , Kay Giesecke

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Ge Yan , Yaniv Romano , Tsui-Wei Weng

As privacy concerns continue to grow, federated learning (FL) has gained significant attention as a promising privacy-preserving technology, leading to considerable advancements in recent years. Unlike traditional machine learning, which…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Boyu Fan , Siyang Jiang , Xiang Su , Sasu Tarkoma , Pan Hui

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

Federated learning (FL) is an emerging paradigm of collaborative machine learning that preserves user privacy while building powerful models. Nevertheless, due to the nature of open participation by self-interested entities, it needs to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-02-18 Yanci Zhang , Han Yu

Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conformal prediction framework to hierarchical classification,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-13 Thomas Mortier , Alireza Javanmardi , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Background and objective: Uncertainty quantification is a pivotal field that contributes to realizing reliable and robust systems. It becomes instrumental in fortifying safe decisions by providing complementary information, particularly…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-19 Jamil Fayyad , Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

Weighted conformal prediction (WCP) has been commonly used to quantify prediction uncertainty under covariate shift. However, the effectiveness of WCP relies heavily on the degree of overlap between the training and test covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Mufang Ying , Wenge Guo , Koulik Khamaru , Ying Hung

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage, assuming exchangeable data. However, real-world scenarios often involve distribution shifts that violate exchangeability, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

Federated Learning (FL) presents an innovative approach to privacy-preserving distributed machine learning and enables efficient crowd intelligence on a large scale. However, a significant challenge arises when coordinating FL with crowd…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Yuhao Zhou , Minjia Shi , Yuxin Tian , Yuanxi Li , Qing Ye , Jiancheng Lv

Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Aoming Liang , Qi Liu , Lei Xu , Fahad Sohrab , Weicheng Cui , Changhui Song , Moncef Gabbouj

Federated learning has received significant attention for its ability to simultaneously protect customer privacy and leverage distributed data from multiple devices for model training. However, conventional approaches often focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Jiahao Zeng , Wolong Xing , Liangtao Shi , Xin Huang , Jialin Wang , Zhile Cao , Zhenkui Shi

Safety is a critical concern in learning-enabled autonomous systems especially when deploying these systems in real-world scenarios. An important challenge is accurately quantifying the uncertainty of unknown models to generate provably…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Hao Zhou , Yanze Zhang , Wenhao Luo

Several uncertainty estimation methods have been recently proposed for machine translation evaluation. While these methods can provide a useful indication of when not to trust model predictions, we show in this paper that the majority of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Chrysoula Zerva , André F. T. Martins

In mobile and IoT systems, Federated Learning (FL) is increasingly important for effectively using data while maintaining user privacy. One key challenge in FL is managing statistical heterogeneity, such as non-i.i.d. data, arising from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-17 Kunda Yan , Sen Cui , Abudukelimu Wuerkaixi , Jingfeng Zhang , Bo Han , Gang Niu , Masashi Sugiyama , Changshui Zhang

Federated Learning (FL) systems evolve in heterogeneous and ever-evolving environments that challenge their performance. Under real deployments, the learning tasks of clients can also evolve with time, which calls for the integration of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Bart Cox , Jeroen Galjaard , Aditya Shankar , Jérémie Decouchant , Lydia Y. Chen

Federated learning has significantly advanced distributed training of machine learning models across decentralized data sources. However, existing frameworks often lack comprehensive solutions that combine uncertainty quantification,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Sree Bhargavi Balija , Amitash Nanda , Debashis Sahoo

Federated learning (FL), aimed at leveraging vast distributed datasets, confronts a crucial challenge: the heterogeneity of data across different silos. While previous studies have explored discrete representations to enhance model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Tianyi Zhang , Yu Cao , Dianbo Liu
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