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We study the design of adaptive, sequential experiments for unbiased average treatment effect (ATE) estimation in the design-based potential outcomes setting. Our goal is to develop adaptive designs offering sublinear Neyman regret, meaning…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-25 Georgy Noarov , Riccardo Fogliato , Martin Bertran , Aaron Roth

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a core problem in causal inference with strong connections to Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning. This paper considers the problem of adaptively selecting the treatment…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-22 Ojash Neopane , Aaditya Ramdas , Aarti Singh

In the experimental design literature, Neyman allocation refers to the practice of allocating units into treated and control groups, potentially in unequal numbers proportional to their respective standard deviations, with the objective of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Jinglong Zhao

We consider the problem of Adaptive Neyman Allocation for the class of AIPW estimators in a design-based setting, where potential outcomes and covariates are deterministic. As each subject arrives, an adaptive procedure must select both a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Fangyi Chen , Shu Ge , Jian Qian , Christopher Harshaw

In the setting of multi-armed trials, adaptive designs are a popular way to increase estimation efficiency, identify optimal treatments, or maximize rewards to individuals. Recent work has considered the case of estimating the effects of K…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Evan T. R. Rosenman , Kristen B. Hunter

We consider an adaptive experiment for treatment choice and design a minimax and Bayes optimal adaptive experiment with respect to regret. Given binary treatments, the experimenter's goal is to choose the treatment with the highest expected…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-10 Masahiro Kato

Multi-armed bandits are widely used for sequential experimentation in clinical trials, recommendation systems, and online platforms. While regret minimization and valid inference from adaptively collected data have each been studied…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Yu-Shiou Willy Lin , Dae Woong Ham , Iavor Bojinov

We consider the classical problem of selecting the best of two treatments in clinical trials with binary response. The target is to find the design that maximizes the power of the relevant test. Many papers use a normal approximation to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-22 David Azriel , Micha Mandel , Yosef Rinott

Given n experiment subjects with potentially heterogeneous covariates and two possible treatments, namely active treatment and control, this paper addresses the fundamental question of determining the optimal accuracy in estimating the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-13 Jiachun Li , David Simchi-Levi , Yunxiao Zhao

Response-adaptive randomization has recently attracted a lot of attention in the literature. In this paper, we propose a new and simple family of response-adaptive randomization procedures that attain the Cramer--Rao lower bounds on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-25 Feifang Hu , Li-Xin Zhang , Xuming He

Incentive design constitutes a foundational paradigm for influencing the behavior of strategic agents, wherein a system planner (principal) publicly commits to an incentive mechanism designed to align individual objectives with collective…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Georgios Vasileiou , Lantian Zhang , Silun Zhang

In clinical trials, there is potential to improve precision and reduce the required sample size by appropriately adjusting for baseline variables in the statistical analysis. This is called covariate adjustment. Despite recommendations by…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Kelly Van Lancker , Joshua Betz , Michael Rosenblum

We study clustered multitask learning in a semiparametric setting where tasks share a latent cluster structure in their target parameters but exhibit heterogeneous, potentially infinite-dimensional nuisance components. Such heterogeneity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Hanxiao Chen , Debarghya Mukherjee

The treatment assignment mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized for statistical efficiency within a specified class of randomization mechanisms. Optimal designs of this type have been characterized in terms of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation as data accumulate. In practice, experimenters often consider multiple candidate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-08 Wenxin Zhang , Aaron Hudson , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan

Adaptive experimentation enables efficient estimation of causal effects, but existing methods are not designed for survival data with censoring, where event times are only partially observed (e.g., overall survival in cancer trials but with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Emil Javurek , Stefan Feuerriegel

In this paper, we study the design and analysis of experiments conducted on a set of units over multiple time periods where the starting time of the treatment may vary by unit. The design problem involves selecting an initial treatment time…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-27 Ruoxuan Xiong , Susan Athey , Mohsen Bayati , Guido Imbens

We study the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. When participants do not adhere to their assigned treatments, we leverage treatment assignment as an instrumental variable to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Undral Byambadalai , Tomu Hirata , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui

We consider how increasingly available observational data can be used to improve the design of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We seek to design a prospective RCT, with the intent of using an Empirical Bayes estimator to shrink the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Evan T. R. Rosenman , Luke Miratrix

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with gradient clipping is a powerful technique for enabling differentially private optimization. Although prior works extensively investigated clipping with a constant threshold, private training remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Egor Shulgin , Peter Richtárik
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