Related papers: Fast and Order-invariant Inference in Bayesian VAR…

Datasets containing large samples of time-to-event data arising from several small heterogeneous groups are commonly encountered in statistics. This presents problems as they cannot be pooled directly due to their heterogeneity or analyzed…

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian probabilistic latent variable model for multi-view anomaly detection, which is the task of finding instances that have inconsistent views. With the proposed model, all views of a non-anomalous instance…

Model misspecification in multivariate econometric models can strongly influence estimates of quantities of interest such as structural parameters, forecast distributions or responses to structural shocks, even more so if higher-order…

Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…

The effects of different parametrizations on the convergence of Bayesian computational algorithms for hierarchical models are well explored. Techniques such as centering, noncentering and partial noncentering can be used to accelerate…

In this article, using kernel convolution of order based dependent Dirichlet process (Griffin and Steel (2006)) we construct a nonstationary, nonseparable, nonparametric space-time process, which, as we show, satisfies desirable properties,…

We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights.…

Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multi-country datasets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this paper, we develop fast…

This article presents an approach to Bayesian semiparametric inference for Gaussian multivariate response regression. We are motivated by various small and medium dimensional problems from the physical and social sciences. The statistical…

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…

We propose a fast inference method for Bayesian nonlinear support vector machines that leverages stochastic variational inference and inducing points. Our experiments show that the proposed method is faster than competing Bayesian…

Using Kalman techniques, it is possible to perform optimal estimation in linear Gaussian state-space models. We address here the case where the noise probability density functions are of unknown functional form. A flexible Bayesian…

We present a re-parameterization of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that allows estimation of parameters under the constraints of causality and invertibility. The parameter constraints associated with a causal invertible…

Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) is a popular Bayesian nonparametric model. In this paper, we apply this model to weighted data and then estimate the un-weighted distribution from the corresponding weighted distribution using the…

Training machine learning and statistical models often involves optimizing a data-driven risk criterion. The risk is usually computed with respect to the empirical data distribution, but this may result in poor and unstable out-of-sample…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…

Some applied researchers hesitate to use nonparametric methods, worrying that they will lose power in small samples or overfit the data when simpler models are sufficient. We argue that at least some of these concerns are unfounded when…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

A natural Bayesian approach for mixture models with an unknown number of components is to take the usual finite mixture model with Dirichlet weights, and put a prior on the number of components---that is, to use a mixture of finite mixtures…

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…