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There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-10-06 Alex Kendall , Yarin Gal

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-20 Luhuan Wu , Sinead Williamson

Object detection and forecasting are fundamental components of embodied perception. These two problems, however, are largely studied in isolation by the community. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end approach for detection and motion…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-01 Neehar Peri , Jonathon Luiten , Mengtian Li , Aljoša Ošep , Laura Leal-Taixé , Deva Ramanan

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

Many current autonomous systems are being designed with a strong reliance on black box predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs). However, DNNs tend to be overconfident in predictions on unseen data and can give unpredictable results for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Björn Lütjens , Michael Everett , Jonathan P. How

Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-16 A. Navarra , G. G. Navarra

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made a revolution in numerous fields during the last decade. However, in tasks with high safety requirements, such as medical or autonomous driving applications, providing an assessment of the models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Omer Achrack , Raizy Kellerman , Ouriel Barzilay

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-08-26 T. N. Palmer , F. J. Doblas-Reyes , A. Weisheimer , G. J. Shutts , J. Berner , J. M. Murphy

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-16 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Felix J. Herrmann

Deep neural networks have amply demonstrated their prowess but estimating the reliability of their predictions remains challenging. Deep Ensembles are widely considered as being one of the best methods for generating uncertainty estimates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-28 Nikita Durasov , Timur Bagautdinov , Pierre Baque , Pascal Fua

We study Bayesian inverse problems with mixed noise, modeled as a combination of additive and multiplicative Gaussian components. While traditional inference methods often assume fixed or known noise characteristics, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Paul Hagemann , Robert Gruhlke , Bernhard Stankewitz , Claudia Schillings , Gabriele Steidl

While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems. While most research in the area has focused on un-structured prediction tasks, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-12 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Uncertainty estimation and ensembling methods go hand-in-hand. Uncertainty estimation is one of the main benchmarks for assessment of ensembling performance. At the same time, deep learning ensembles have provided state-of-the-art results…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-20 Arsenii Ashukha , Alexander Lyzhov , Dmitry Molchanov , Dmitry Vetrov

Supervised masking approaches in the time-frequency domain aim to employ deep neural networks to estimate a multiplicative mask to extract clean speech. This leads to a single estimate for each input without any guarantees or measures of…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-16 Huajian Fang , Dennis Becker , Stefan Wermter , Timo Gerkmann

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Uncertainty estimation has been extensively studied in recent literature, which can usually be classified as aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. In current aleatoric uncertainty estimation frameworks, it is often neglected that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Jing Zhang , Yuchao Dai , Mehrtash Harandi , Yiran Zhong , Nick Barnes , Richard Hartley

Bayesian estimation is a vital tool in robotics as it allows systems to update the robot state belief using incomplete information from noisy sensors. To render the state estimation problem tractable, many systems assume that the motion and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Miguel Saavedra-Ruiz , Steven A. Parkison , Ria Arora , James Richard Forbes , Liam Paull

This work presents a probabilistic deep neural network that combines LiDAR point clouds and RGB camera images for robust, accurate 3D object detection. We explicitly model uncertainties in the classification and regression tasks, and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-02-04 Di Feng , Yifan Cao , Lars Rosenbaum , Fabian Timm , Klaus Dietmayer