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Learning strategies for imperfect information games from samples of interaction is a challenging problem. A common method for this setting, Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization (MCCFR), can have slow long-term convergence rates…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Martin Schmid , Neil Burch , Marc Lanctot , Matej Moravcik , Rudolf Kadlec , Michael Bowling

We show that Markov couplings can be used to improve the accuracy of Markov chain Monte Carlo calculations in some situations where the steady-state probability distribution is not explicitly known. The technique generalizes the notion of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Jonathan B. Goodman , Kevin K. Lin

A method is developed to numerically solve chance constrained optimal control problems. The chance constraints are reformulated as nonlinear constraints that retain the probability properties of the original constraint. The reformulation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-29 Rachel E. Keil , Alexander T. Miller , Mrinal Kumar , Anil V. Rao

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) is a recently proposed variation of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation that achieves variance reduction by simulating the governing equations on a series of spatial (or temporal) grids with increasing resolution.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-26 Hillary Fairbanks , Alireza Doostan , Christian Ketelsen , Gianluca Iaccarino

A novel linear integration rule called $\textit{control neighbors}$ is proposed in which nearest neighbor estimates act as control variates to speed up the convergence rate of the Monte Carlo procedure on metric spaces. The main result is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-05 Rémi Leluc , François Portier , Johan Segers , Aigerim Zhuman

We study the problem of empirical minimization for variance-type functionals over functional classes. Sharp non-asymptotic bounds for the excess variance are derived under mild conditions. In particular, it is shown that under some…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-03 D. Belomestny , L. Iosipoi , Q. Paris , N. Zhivotovskiy

This paper studies the addition of linear constraints to the Support Vector Regression (SVR) when the kernel is linear. Adding those constraints into the problem allows to add prior knowledge on the estimator obtained, such as finding…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-07 Quentin Klopfenstein , Samuel Vaiter

This work is motivated by the need to study the impact of data uncertainties and material imperfections on the solution to optimal control problems constrained by partial differential equations. We consider a pathwise optimal control…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Ahmad Ahmad Ali , Elisabeth Ullmann , Michael Hinze

For classification problems with significant class imbalance, subsampling can reduce computational costs at the price of inflated variance in estimating model parameters. We propose a method for subsampling efficiently for logistic…

Computation · Statistics 2014-09-24 William Fithian , Trevor Hastie

The Robbins-Monro stochastic approximation algorithm is a foundation of many algorithmic frameworks for reinforcement learning (RL), and often an efficient approach to solving (or approximating the solution to) complex optimal control…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-19 Andrey Bernstein , Yue Chen , Marcello Colombino , Emiliano Dall'Anese , Prashant Mehta , Sean Meyn

Distortion risk measures play a critical role in quantifying risks associated with uncertain outcomes. Accurately estimating these risk measures in the context of computationally expensive simulation models that lack analytical tractability…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-29 Sören Bettels , Stefan Weber

Stepped-wedge designs are increasingly used in randomized experiments to accommodate logistical and ethical constraints by staggering treatment roll-out over time. Despite their popularity, existing analytical methods largely rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Liangbo Lyu , Bingkai Wang

We explain in detail how to estimate mean values and assess statistical errors for arbitrary functions of elementary observables in Monte Carlo simulations. The method is to estimate and sum the relevant autocorrelation functions, which is…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2009-09-29 Ulli Wolff

Multivariate normal (MVN) probabilities arise in myriad applications, but they are analytically intractable and need to be evaluated via Monte-Carlo-based numerical integration. For the state-of-the-art minimax exponential tilting (MET)…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-28 Jian Cao , Matthias Katzfuss

Monte Carlo criticality simulations are widely used in nuclear safety demonstrations, as they offer an arbitrarily precise estimation of global and local tallies while making very few assumptions. However, since the inception of such…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-01-11 Kévin Fröhlicher , Eric Dumonteil , Loïc Thulliez , Julien Taforeau , Mariya Brovchenko

In this paper we examine a control variate estimator for a quantity that can be expressed as the expectation of a functional of a random process, that is itself the solution of a differential equation driven by fast mean-reverting ergodic…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-10 Josselin Garnier , Laurent Mertz

I develop a numerical algorithm for stochastic impulse control in the spirit of Regression Monte Carlo for optimal stopping. The approach consists in generating statistical surrogates (aka functional approximators) for the continuation…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-03-15 Mike Ludkovski

Optimization in the Bures-Wasserstein space has been gaining popularity in the machine learning community since it draws connections between variational inference and Wasserstein gradient flows. The variational inference objective function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Hoang Phuc Hau Luu , Hanlin Yu , Bernardo Williams , Marcelo Hartmann , Arto Klami

We develop a novel Monte Carlo algorithm for the vector consisting of the supremum, the time at which the supremum is attained and the position at a given (constant) time of an exponentially tempered L\'evy process. The algorithm, based on…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-20 Jorge Ignacio González Cázares , Aleksandar Mijatović

This review covers applications of quantum Monte Carlo methods to quantum mechanical problems in the study of electronic and atomic structure, as well as applications to statistical mechanical problems both of static and dynamic nature. The…

chem-ph · Physics 2016-10-26 M. P. Nightingale , C. J. Umrigar