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Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even with model mismatch and adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

In this work we study systems consisting of a group of moving particles. In such systems, often some important parameters are unknown and have to be estimated from observed data. Such parameter estimation problems can often be solved via a…

Applications · Statistics 2023-07-11 Chen Cheng , Linjie Wen , Jinglai Li

We propose an approach based on function evaluations and Bayesian inference to extract higher-order differential information of objective functions {from a given ensemble of particles}. Pointwise evaluation $\{V(x^i)\}_i$ of some potential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-02 Claudia Schillings , Claudia Totzeck , Philipp Wacker

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier

Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Xinlei Xiong , Wenbo Hu , Shuxun Zhou , Kaifeng Bi , Lingxi Xie , Ying Liu , Richang Hong , Qi Tian

Computing the exact likelihood of data in large Bayesian networks consisting of thousands of vertices is often a difficult task. When these models contain many deterministic conditional probability tables and when the observed values are…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-26 Ydo Wexler , Dan Geiger

Ensembles of deep neural networks have achieved great success recently, but they do not offer a proper Bayesian justification. Moreover, while they allow for averaging of predictions over several hypotheses, they do not provide any…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Francesco D'Angelo , Vincent Fortuin , Florian Wenzel

Many modern unsupervised or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms rely on Bayesian probabilistic models. These models are usually intractable and thus require approximate inference. Variational inference (VI) lets us approximate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-24 Cheng Zhang , Judith Butepage , Hedvig Kjellstrom , Stephan Mandt

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-02 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Francesco Tonolini , Jack Radford , Alex Turpin , Daniele Faccio , Roderick Murray-Smith

Extracting meaning from uncertain, noisy data is a fundamental problem across time series analysis, pattern recognition, and language modeling. This survey presents a unified mathematical framework that connects classical estimation theory,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Mohammed Elmusrati

Bayesian methods have shown success in deep learning applications. For example, in predictive tasks, Bayesian neural networks leverage Bayesian reasoning of model uncertainty to improve the reliability and uncertainty awareness of deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Wenlong Chen , Bolian Li , Ruqi Zhang , Yingzhen Li

One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 David M. Blei , Alp Kucukelbir , Jon D. McAuliffe

We propose a novel approach to the problem of multilevel clustering, which aims to simultaneously partition data in each group and discover grouping patterns among groups in a potentially large hierarchically structured corpus of data. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-26 Viet Huynh , Nhat Ho , Nhan Dam , XuanLong Nguyen , Mikhail Yurochkin , Hung Bui , and Dinh Phung

Particle-based variational inference methods (ParVIs) have gained attention in the Bayesian inference literature, for their capacity to yield flexible and accurate approximations. We explore ParVIs from the perspective of Wasserstein…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-17 Chang Liu , Jingwei Zhuo , Pengyu Cheng , Ruiyi Zhang , Jun Zhu , Lawrence Carin

We explore the link between deep ensembles and Gaussian processes (GPs) through the lens of the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK): a recent development in understanding the training dynamics of wide neural networks (NNs). Previous work has shown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Bobby He , Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Yee Whye Teh

Bayesian neural networks utilize probabilistic layers that capture uncertainty over weights and activations, and are trained using Bayesian inference. Since these probabilistic layers are designed to be drop-in replacement of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-28 Daniel T. Chang

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

We develop a framework for generalized variational inference in infinite-dimensional function spaces and use it to construct a method termed Gaussian Wasserstein inference (GWI). GWI leverages the Wasserstein distance between Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-18 Veit D. Wild , Robert Hu , Dino Sejdinovic

Variational Bayes methods are popular due to their computational efficiency and adaptability to diverse applications. In specifying the variational family, mean-field classes are commonly used, which enables efficient algorithms such as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-26 Shitao Fan , Ilsang Ohn , David Dunson , Lizhen Lin