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In this paper we introduce a novel way of estimating prediction uncertainty in deep networks through the use of uncertainty surrogates. These surrogates are features of the penultimate layer of a deep network that are forced to match…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-19 Radhakrishna Achanta , Natasa Tagasovska

Not being able to understand and predict the behavior of deep learning systems makes it hard to decide what architecture and algorithm to use for a given problem. In science and engineering, modeling is a methodology used to understand…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-15 Michael Y. Li , Erin Grant , Thomas L. Griffiths

Large scale integration of distributed energy resources and electric vehicles in a transactive energy environment present new challenges in terms of voltage stability and fluctuations in a power distribution system. The impact of different…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-30 Sai Munikoti , Kumarsinh Jhala , Kexing Lai , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Surrogates in lieu of expensive-to-evaluate performance functions can accelerate the reliability analysis greatly. This paper proposes a new two-stage framework for surrogate-aided reliability analysis named Surrogates for Importance…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-01-29 Wang-Sheng Liu , Sai Hung Cheung , Wen-Jun Cao

We build surrogate models for dynamic 3D subsurface single-phase flow problems with multiple vertical producing wells. The surrogate model provides efficient pressure estimation of the entire formation at any timestep given a stochastic…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Rui Xu , Dongxiao Zhang , Nanzhe Wang

Diffusion and Schr\"{o}dinger Bridge models have established state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling but are often hampered by significant computational costs and complex training procedures. While continuous-time bridges…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Maria Khilchuk , Vladimir Latypov , Pavel Kleshchev , Alexander Hvatov

In the paper, a multi-objective evolutionary surrogate-assisted approach for the fast and effective generative design of coastal breakwaters is proposed. To approximate the computationally expensive objective functions, the deep…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-10-28 Nikita O. Starodubcev , Nikolay O. Nikitin , Anna V. Kalyuzhnaya

Decision support systems often rely on solving complex optimization problems that may require to estimate uncertain parameters beforehand. Recent studies have shown how using traditionally trained estimators for this task can lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Gaetano Signorelli , Michele Lombardi

We tackle the problem of quantifying failure probabilities for expensive deterministic computer experiments with stochastic inputs under a fixed budget. The computational cost of the computer simulation prohibits direct Monte Carlo (MC) and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Annie S. Booth , S. Ashwin Renganathan

As data collection and simulation capabilities advance, multi-modal learning, the task of learning from multiple modalities and sources of data, is becoming an increasingly important area of research. Surrogate models that learn from data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Ian Taylor , Juliane Mueller , Julie Bessac

Learning data representations under uncertainty is an important task that emerges in numerous scientific computing and data analysis applications. However, uncertainty quantification techniques are computationally intensive and become…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Paz Fink Shustin , Shashanka Ubaru , Małgorzata J. Zimoń , Songtao Lu , Vasileios Kalantzis , Lior Horesh , Haim Avron

Machine learning and computational intelligence technologies gain more and more popularity as possible solution for issues related to the power grid. One of these issues, the power flow calculation, is an iterative method to compute the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-21 Stephan Balduin , Eric MSP Veith , Sebastian Lehnhoff

The paper proposes and investigates an approach for surrogate-assisted performance prediction of data-driven knowledge discovery algorithms. The approach is based on the identification of surrogate models for prediction of the target…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Anastasia A. Funkner , Aleksey N. Yakovlev , Sergey V. Kovalchuk

Performing reliability analysis on complex systems is often computationally expensive. In particular, when dealing with systems having high input dimensionality, reliability estimation becomes a daunting task. A popular approach to overcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-22 Navaneeth N. , Souvik Chakraborty

The aim of this study is to develop surrogate models for quick, accurate prediction of thrust forces generated through flapping fin propulsion for given operating conditions and fin geometries. Different network architectures and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-11-01 Kamal Viswanath , Alisha Sharma , Saketh Gabbita , Jason Geder , Ravi Ramamurti , Marius Pruessner

Stochastic collocation (SC) is a well-known non-intrusive method of constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification. In dynamical systems, SC is especially suited for full-field uncertainty propagation that characterizes the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-18 Saibal De , Reese E. Jones , Hemanth Kolla

This article proposes a model-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method to design emergency control strategies for short-term voltage stability problems in power systems. Recent advances show promising results in model-free DRL-based…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-07 Ramij R. Hossain , Tianzhixi Yin , Yan Du , Renke Huang , Jie Tan , Wenhao Yu , Yuan Liu , Qiuhua Huang

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Shane A. McQuarrie , Anirban Chaudhuri , Karen E. Willcox , Mengwu Guo

Smart power grids are one of the most complex cyber-physical systems, delivering electricity from power generation stations to consumers. It is critically important to know exactly the current state of the system as well as its state…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-12 Shahrzad Hadayeghparast , Amir Namavar Jahromi , Hadis Karimipour

Highly accurate datasets from numerical or physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming to acquire, posing a significant challenge for applications that require precise evaluations, potentially across multiple scenarios and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Paolo Conti , Mengwu Guo , Attilio Frangi , Andrea Manzoni