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We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-18 Isaac Gibbs , John J. Cherian , Emmanuel J. Candès

Empirical risk minimization often performs poorly when the distribution of the target domain differs from those of source domains. To address such potential distribution shifts, we develop an unsupervised domain adaptation approach that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-25 Zhenyu Wang , Peter Bühlmann , Zijian Guo

Medical imaging classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, which prevents their deployment in medical clinics. We present an algorithm that can modify any classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Roy Hirsch , Jacob Goldberger

Existing regression models tend to fall short in both accuracy and uncertainty estimation when the label distribution is imbalanced. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic deep learning model, dubbed variational imbalanced regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Ziyan Wang , Hao Wang

Deep learning has achieved remarkable success in medical image classification. However, its clinical application is often hindered by data heterogeneity caused by variations in scanner vendors, imaging protocols, and operators. Approaches…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-11 Yaoyao Zhu , Xiuding Cai , Yingkai Wang , Yu Yao , Xu Luo , Zhongliang Fu

Modern image classifiers are very accurate, but the predictions come without uncertainty estimates. Conformal predictors provide uncertainty estimates by computing a set of classes containing the correct class with a user-specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Fatih Furkan Yilmaz , Reinhard Heckel

We develop a predictive inference procedure that combines conformal prediction (CP) with unconditional quantile regression (QR) -- a commonly used tool in econometrics that involves regressing the recentered influence function (RIF) of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Ahmed M. Alaa , Zeshan Hussain , David Sontag

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions for machine learning models that are valid with high probability. A key component of conformal prediction algorithms is a \emph{non-conformity score function} that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Renukanandan Tumu , Matthew Cleaveland , Rahul Mangharam , George J. Pappas , Lars Lindemann

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Adaptive importance sampling for stochastic optimization is a promising approach that offers improved convergence through variance reduction. In this work, we propose a new framework for variance reduction that enables the use of mixtures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-01 Zalán Borsos , Sebastian Curi , Kfir Y. Levy , Andreas Krause

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Invariance-principle-based methods such as Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM), have recently emerged as promising approaches for Domain Generalization (DG). Despite promising theory, such approaches fail in common classification tasks due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Thuan Nguyen , Boyang Lyu , Prakash Ishwar , Matthias Scheutz , Shuchin Aeron

Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Clément Dombry , Ahmed Zaoui

For robust statistical inference it is crucial to obtain a good estimator of the variance of the proposed estimator of the statistical estimand. A commonly used estimator of the variance for an asymptotically linear estimator is the sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Yunwen Ji , Mark van der Laan , Alan Hubbard

Covariate shifts are a common problem in predictive modeling on real-world problems. This paper proposes addressing the covariate shift problem by minimizing Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) statistics between the training and test sets in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Liwen Ouyang , Aaron Key

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-24 Insung Kong , Yuha Park , Joonhyuk Jung , Kwonsang Lee , Yongdai Kim

In this work we investigate to which extent one can recover class probabilities within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) paradigm. The main aim of our paper is to extend existing results and emphasize the tight relations between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Alexander Mey , Marco Loog

Conformal prediction is a valuable tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty of machine learning models. However, its applicability relies on the assumption of data exchangeability, a condition which is often not met in real-world…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-30 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Darren Xu , Kuang-Chih Lee

Causal influence measures for machine learnt classifiers shed light on the reasons behind classification, and aid in identifying influential input features and revealing their biases. However, such analyses involve evaluating the classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-10 Shayak Sen , Piotr Mardziel , Anupam Datta , Matthew Fredrikson