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We prove that the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator attains nearly minimax optimal performance for the identification of linear dynamical systems from a single observed trajectory. Our upper bound relies on a generalization of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-25 Max Simchowitz , Horia Mania , Stephen Tu , Michael I. Jordan , Benjamin Recht

This paper considers the problem of linear time-invariant (LTI) system identification using input/output data. Recent work has provided non-asymptotic results on partially observed LTI system identification using a single trajectory but is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-23 Yang Zheng , Na Li

We present a new finite-time analysis of the estimation error of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator for stable linear time-invariant systems. We characterize the number of observed samples (the length of the observed trajectory)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-27 Yassir Jedra , Alexandre Proutiere

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to model dynamical behavior of systems. It is important to perform identifiability analysis prior to estimating unknown parameters in ODEs (a.k.a. inverse problem), because if a system…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-11 Xing Qiu , Tao Xu , Babak Soltanalizadeh , Hulin Wu

Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) have recently gained a lot of attention in machine learning. However, the theoretical aspects, e.g., identifiability and asymptotic properties of statistical estimation are still obscure. This paper…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-04 Yuanyuan Wang , Wei Huang , Mingming Gong , Xi Geng , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang , Dacheng Tao

Ordinary differential equations (ODE) have been widely used for modeling dynamical complex systems. For high-dimensional ODE models where the number of differential equations is large, it remains challenging to estimate the ODE parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Muye Nanshan , Nan Zhang , Xiaolei Xun , Jiguo Cao

In this work, we study the problem of learning partially observed linear dynamical systems from a single sample trajectory. A major practical challenge in the existing system identification methods is the undesirable dependency of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-09 Salar Fattahi

There has been remarkable progress over the past decade in establishing finite-sample, non-asymptotic bounds on recovering unknown system parameters from observed system behavior. Surprisingly, however, we show that the current…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Yichen Zhou , Stephen Tu

Dynamical systems modeling is a core pillar of scientific inquiry across natural and life sciences. Increasingly, dynamical system models are learned from data, rendering identifiability a paramount concept. For systems that are not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Cecilia Casolo , Sören Becker , Niki Kilbertus

We consider the problem of learning the dynamics of autonomous linear systems (i.e., systems that are not affected by external control inputs) from observations of multiple trajectories of those systems, with finite sample guarantees.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-27 Lei Xin , George Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram

We consider the problem of learning the parameters of a $N$-dimensional stochastic linear dynamics under both full and partial observations from a single trajectory of time $T$. We introduce and analyze a new estimator that achieves a small…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-08 Minh Vu , Andrey Y. Lokhov , Marc Vuffray

System identification is a fundamental problem in control and learning, particularly in high-stakes applications where data efficiency is critical. Classical approaches, such as the ordinary least squares estimator (OLS), achieve an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-12 Xiong Zeng , Jing Yu , Necmiye Ozay

High dimensional random dynamical systems are ubiquitous, including -- but not limited to -- cyber-physical systems, daily return on different stocks of S&P 1500 and velocity profile of interacting particle systems around McKeanVlasov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Muhammad Abdullah Naeem , Amir Khazraei , Miroslav Pajic

Linear regression is one of the most prevalent techniques in machine learning, however, it is also common to use linear regression for its \emph{explanatory} capabilities rather than label prediction. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is often…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-08-23 Or Sheffet

We consider linear regression in the high-dimensional regime where the number of observations $n$ is smaller than the number of parameters $p$. A very successful approach in this setting uses $\ell_1$-penalized least squares (a.k.a. the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-05 Adel Javanmard , Andrea Montanari

A discrete-time linear dynamical system (LDS) is given by an update matrix $M \in \mathbb{R}^{d\times d}$, and has the trajectories $\langle s, Ms, M^2s, \ldots \rangle$ for $s \in \mathbb{R}^d$. Reachability-type decision problems of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Toghrul Karimov

Estimation and inference in statistics pose significant challenges when data are collected adaptively. Even in linear models, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator may fail to exhibit asymptotic normality for single coordinate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-31 Licong Lin , Mufang Ying , Suvrojit Ghosh , Koulik Khamaru , Cun-Hui Zhang

This note presents a unified analysis of the identification of dynamical systems with low-rank constraints under high-dimensional scaling. This identification problem for dynamic systems are challenging due to the intrinsic dependency of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-23 Junlin Li

In this work, we study non-asymptotic bounds on correlation between two time realizations of stable linear systems with isotropic Gaussian noise. Consequently, via sampling from a sub-trajectory and using \emph{Talagrands'} inequality, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-05 Muhammad Abdullah Naeem

This paper considers a single-trajectory system identification problem for linear systems under general nonlinear and/or time-varying policies with i.i.d. random excitation noises. The problem is motivated by safe learning-based control for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Yingying Li , Tianpeng Zhang , Subhro Das , Jeff Shamma , Na Li
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